My last column here mentioned how fans need to limit their overreactions after one game, and the same applies after one week. One thing that inevitably happens is that games that look big in November appear less impressive in March, and vice versa. The best part about college sports is that they often vary in execution from what is expected to happen. That’s also why I hate the NCAA using predictive metrics for picking the tournament field, but that is a column for another day.
In the first week of the season, we saw a number of upsets. Texas A&M is a highly regarded team this season, as evidenced by their preseason ranking of 13 in the initial AP poll. They began the year playing Central Florida, who was picked 11th in the Big 12. So naturally UCF pulled off the upset. UCLA joined a new conference and were ranked in the top 25 (22nd) and picked third in the 18 team Big Ten (I know, I know). After an opening blowout of Rider, the Bruins played New Mexico in Las Vegas. The Lobos scored the first basket and got a lead the never relinquished. Other early upset victims included Mountain West favorite Boise State (San Francisco) and American Conference favorite Alabama-Birmingham (Vermont).
The last upset I will mention is St. Joe’s, picked to finished third in a highly competitive Atlantic 10. As Kim English noted after the Stonehill game, St. Joe’s has three potential pro players on their roster. They beat Navy in their season opener, then were beaten by Central Connecticut (CCSU) 73-67. This is the same CCSU that had much of Friartown in a state of panic after the Friars escaped with a 59-55 squeaker in their season opener. CCSU made 8 of 24 three-pointers against the Hawks after going 0-8 from deep against the Friars. I mention this because it is a tribute to the Friars’ defense, especially from Wesley Cardet, Corey Floyd, and Bensley Joseph that they did not allow CCSU to even get off long shots. As a result of these games, CCSU has moved up roughly 100 spots in the KenPom rankings, which might be another reason why we shouldn’t use predictive rankings to pick NCAA tournament teams.
As far as the Big East is concerned, there was a lot of early whining about the conference looking weaker than expected due to a few losses and a number of close games. I think there are a number of reasons for this. Teams like CCSU and Columbia (which dominated Villanova in the second half in their win on Wednesday) have veteran teams that have played together for multiple years. Conversely, a lot of the Big East schools have had significant turnover due to the portal and haven’t had a chance to gel. We have seen in Friartown how preseason injuries can affect teamwork and development. The three teams that lost also have new point guards and at least three new starters from last year’s respective teams. Providence has shown how having a new point guard in particular can affect teams, as even though Jayden Pierre is back, he hasn’t practiced much and was on a minutes restriction as he recovers from a leg injury.
The other factor is that these may not be very good teams, at least at this point in the season. Seton Hall was picked 10th in the Coaches’ poll and they’ve done nothing to show that was a mistake. Butler and Villanova were picked 7th and 8th respectively, and most experts agreed there was a significant gap between teams 1-6 compared to teams 7-11. Butler has two top-level scorers returning in Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort and added Patrick McCaffrey. The problem is that Finley Bizjack and Andre Screen, who would be quality reserves, are being forced into starting roles. Losing their starting backcourt from last without replacing them will be a problem all season. Villanova has replaced most of their roster except all-conference player Eric Dixon and Jordan Longino, who started 8 games over his first three seasons. They did bring in talent through the portal, but will need to develop a team identity, if they ever do. As I mentioned in my Seton Hall preview, they went after several low-risk, high-reward recruits in the portal, but the early returns aren’t promising. Time will tell if Shaheen Holloway can get Garwey Dual, Scotty Middleton, and Gus Yalden to reach their high school hype potential.
On the positive side, both DePaul and Georgetown have started the season at 2-0. This might not seem like much, especially considering DePaul needed overtime to beat Southern Indiana and Georgetown had two fairly close games against 300ish ranked teams. The fact that DePaul is only one win away from last year’s total and Georgetown appears to have a good chance to win at least 10 games for the first time in four years makes these developments positive for the Big East. DePaul’s Isaiah Rivera, a career 41% shooter from three on over 300 attempts at Colorado St and UIC, has continued his touch through two games and Jacob Meyer has also shown a level of comfort playing for the Blue Demons. Chris Holtmann has made a significant change in how DePaul plays, with a more coordinated defensive presence, and an offense that is taking double the three-pointers they attempted last year. Georgetown has been a mixed bag so far. Micah Peavy was their top portal recruit, and has performed admirably so far, including ten steals in two games. Freshman center Thomas Sorber has been much better than I expected, with 45 points and 23 rebounds in his first two games. I suspect his production will decrease once he faces legitimate big men, but it is clear that he is a long-term building block for Ed. On the other hand, Malik Mack has struggled early from deep and has nine turnovers in two games. They have also allowed two subpar opponents to hit 40% of their three-pointers, so it will be interesting to see how they develop.
Connecticut, Creighton, and Marquette have all shown that they have star power, and should be able to maintain their high level of production as the season goes along. Alex Karaban has continued to produce at an elite level, Tarris Reed appears ready to be their lead center, Solomon Ball has greatly improved, and I’ll stand by my prediction that Liam McNeeley will be their best player come March. For Creighton, Ryan Kalkbrenner is playing like he is aiming for National Player of the Year, and Steven Ashworth is much more comfortable quarterbacking this team. Marquette’s Kam Jones has embraced his new role on the team, and it seems that David Joplin and Chase Ross are elevating their games.
St. John’s and Xavier have top-tier coaches who made changes after last year t bring their teams back to the NCAA tournament. Rick Pitino brought in three players (Kadary Richmond, Aaron Scott, and Deivon Smith) to provide both talent and leadership for his team, and so far it’s been working. Xavier returned Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter after missing last season with career-threatening injuries. They have both played up to expectations early, with newcomer Ryan Conwell and returnees Dayvion McKnight and Dailyn Swain giving Sean Miller multiple options every night.
For our beloved Friars, the first week has been a mixed bag, which should be expected with the time missed and a significant influx of talent. Wesley Cardet was excellent in the first two games of the season, especially on the defensive end. Offensively, it was apparent that he was feeling his way as he adjusts to Coach English’s style of offense. I noted previously that going from the primary option to one of five options isn’t easy. During the UMass scrimmage and the first half of the CCSU game, he appeared to be caught trying to figure out what to do, leading to mistakes and turnovers. After 3 first-half turnovers on Monday, he’s only had one since in three halves of play. He played much more effortlessly on offense Saturday, taking what the game gave him, resulting in 12 first-half points from a variety of spots on the floor. He’s also gotten 8 offensive rebounds in two games, a point of emphasis for Coach English this season. Bensley Joseph showed he can take over a game when needed as he did on Monday, but he’s also comfortable letting others do their job, where he was a facilitator and defender against Stonehill. Jabri Abdur-Rahim came here billed as a shooter and showed that Saturday with 3 three-pointers. More importantly, it’s clear that he can create his own shot and get it off quickly, an added bonus. Corey Floyd has struggled shooting so far, but ended on a positive not by draining his final shot beyond the arc Saturday. I have no doubt he can be a 35%+ shooter from there, but he needs to start showing it. My guess is that it starts happening Tuesday. Fortunately, his defense has gotten even better than last year, and he and Wesley Cardet provide elite size, versatility, and athleticism protecting the wings.
There are plenty of other areas that I will explore as the season continues, but I would like to end with a note on Ryan Mela, who made his debut Saturday. He played for 11 minutes and scored 7 points with 4 rebounds. More importantly, he played like an upper classman instead of a freshman. He looked entirely comfortable on the court, and not the least bit intimidated while making his debut before 11,027 fans. It became evident immediately why Coach Dennis Felton was drawn to Ryan when he was at a game scouting a different player.
With two more games next week and the return of Bryce Hopkins on the horizon, there will be plenty of highs for the team as they prepare for the Bahamas tournament and the Big East season. Go Friars.