Breaking Down Justin Robinson’s Choices

With the announcement/birthday weekend upon us I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the schools 2015 PG recruit Justin Robinson is considering for his final 4. When I began writing this article I planned on doing all four schools on the list but it has become increasingly clear that this will come down to a two horse race between Providence and Virginia Tech. Maryland apparently has pulled out of the race this week and is focusing on JUCO transfer Jaylen Brantley in 2015 while UNLV always seemed like the outsider of the final group.

Let’s jump right in….

Providence

Pro’s:

Basketball School

“Providence is a basketball town, and the family style there, it’s a really big thing.” That’s a quote from Justin Robinson in a recent interview he did with Dave Lomonico from TerrapinTimes.com. If you go onto any of the Providence basketball message boards you will find multiple threads and discussion about Justin Robinson and his upcoming decision. Friar fans are passionate about the basketball team and they follow recruiting very closely. While the hockey team has started to make a return to glory, Ed Cooley is likely one of the most widely recognized people in the state of Rhode Island. PC basketball is the pro team in Rhode Island. The Dunkin’ Donuts Center is loud and rocking when the team is good and Ed Cooley has made the team good again.

Ed Cooley

Speaking of Ed Cooley, the head coach of the Friars has used his “brick by brick” rebuilding philosophy to have Providence ahead of schedule and winning in year 3. When I have spoken with recruits who have committed to Ed Cooley at Providence one of the common refrains I hear is that ultimately they are coming to Providence because of Ed Cooley. Cooley preaches more than basketball and players relate to that. Cooley also preaches family and stresses to fans that this is “our” team. He and his staff have created that family environment already. Robinson summed it up nicely:

“We felt very welcome there. I like the variety of personalities there on the staff, and just how they present themselves. It’s like they want you to win, and they want to win big, but they also understand there’s more to it than just winning basketball games.”

Point Guard Playing Time

Kris Dunn has looked good in practice since being cleared for full contact in the middle of September and while Dunn is only technically a redshirt sophomore I think most Friar fans expect he will be getting paid to play basketball before he uses all of his remaining eligibility. It appears Dunn and Robinson spoke about that while Robinson was on his official visit to Providence back in September.

“And it’s a good situation for me at Providence, because they don’t have that many guards. Kris Dunn is probably going pro after this year, and even if he stays he said himself he’s more of a scoring guard, so I could potentially fit right in at the point.”

Robinson is a pure point guard. He is a floor general who excels at running a team. He and Kris Dunn could certainly play together for stretches as Dunn’s size would allow him to guard shooting guards. While freshman Kyron Cartwright and Tyree Chambers are in the fold, Cartwright likely could use more seasoning and is much more effective in transition than the halfcourt and Chambers’ game reminds me of savvy NBA veteran who uses his IQ and feel for the game to be in good positions and hit open shots to make up for some physical limitations. Robinson can be dynamic getting into the lane and is a winner.

National TV Exposure

Fox Sports 1 got off to a bit of a rocky start in the inaugural year of the network but Big East basketball ratings were trending up as the year went on and many of the “what channel is that?” stuff got ironed out. Compared to 9 games on ESPN3 for Virginia Tech, Providence only has 2 (ironically both against ACC members in Florida State and Boston College). Compared to 11 games on regional networks for Virginia Tech, Providence only has 4. Their other 25 games are on Fox, Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, ESPN2 or CBS Sports Network. That’s 25 games that will be nationally televised during the regular season. A Saturday afternoon game at Madison Square Garden against St. John’s will be played on Fox. That’s regular Fox. Not Fox Sports. 9 Big East games will be on Fox during the 2014-15 season and I would expect that number to gradually increase.

Con’s:

Distance from Home

Robinson told Dave Lomonico in that TerrapinTimes.com article I referenced earlier “my mom used to joke when I was younger that she was going to college with me, but she backed off that recently.” This was part of the article talking about UNLV but Providence, RI isn’t exactly close to Virginia. While he says his mom backed off, that could be something he considers or that his mother subtly mentions during their discussions.

Virginia Tech

Pro’s:

ACC

The ACC is widely considered the best college basketball league in the country after the Big East defections of Syracuse, Pittsburgh and now Louisville (via the American Athletic Conference for one season). These newcomers to the league will partner with the blue bloods of Duke and UNC and defending league champion Virginia to continue to expand the notoriety of this conference on the basketball court. ESPN will also give their usual assist. While the Hokies aren’t a hot enough ticket to appear on ESPN at all this season they will be on ESPN2 twice and ESPNU seven times. Most of their other games are available on ESPN3. Not being on ESPN and having most of the games on ESPN3 isn’t ideal but ESPN’s overall backing and promotion is valuable enough that if the Hokies do turn the program around they will be assured more ESPN and ESPN2 games.

Proximity to Home

Justin Robinson is from Manassas, VA so playing for the home state Hokies would make sense. Blacksburg is about a three and a half hour drive from Robinson’s home so his parents would likely be able to make the trip for most, if not all, of his homes games as well as some road games like at Virginia (even closer than Blacksburg) at Duke, UNC and NC State (similar drives as the one to Blacksburg).

Con’s:

Football School

In doing research of Virginia Tech’s situation I tried to check out some Hokie fan message boards to hear what fans of that program felt about Robinson’s recruitment and Buzz Williams, etc. There wasn’t much to find. Most message boards had the discussion dominated by Hokie football and many of them didn’t even reference Justin Robinson or the fact that he was making a decision on Sunday.

ACC

Here is where the Hokies have finished within the ACC the last 3 seasons:

• 2013-14 – 2-16 in ACC play – dead last
• 2012-13 – 4-14 in ACC play – dead last
• 2011-12 – 4-12 in ACC play – tied for last

While it’s nice to be in the best basketball league and play teams like Duke, UNC, Syracuse and Louisville it’s also nice to win games. Maybe Buzz Williams can turn things in Blacksburg but this will be the first time he has had to rebuild a program as the head coach. Also the exposure for a team like Virginia Tech is not great as they don’t make a single appearance on ESPN this entire season and have most of their games in 2014-15 relegated to ESPN3 or ESPNU.

Rebuilding

This topic segues nicely from the prior one. The last 3 seasons saw win totals of 16, 13 and 9. If you look back 5 seasons and include the successful 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons that means the win totals have steadily declined from 23 in 2009-10 down to just 9 wins in 2013-14. When Buzz Williams took over from Tom Crean at Marquette the program was healthy having won 20 games or more in 3 consecutive seasons (2005-06 (20), 2006-07 (24) and 2007-08 (25)).  Williams’ one losing season as a head coach came in 2006-07 when he led the Privateers of the University of New Orleans to a 14-17 record before leaving after that sole season to take an assistant coaching job on Crean’s Marquette staff. The point is that Buzz Williams has never had to oversee a rebuilding job and the ACC is a tough league to rebuild. Does Justin Robinson want to spend most if not all of his 4 years in college on a rebuilding team?

And Now We Wait

It’s hard to say if Robinson and his family have already made a decision because they have played this recruitment very close to the vest but we won’t know what school is chosen until Sunday, October 12th at 2:30pm when Justin Robinson puts on a hat or a jersey or whatever he will decide to do to reveal the school of his choice. In a recent fan poll conducted on this site nearly 45% of the 258 respondents said they have a 50% confidence level that Robinson would pick Providence. With the decision coming down to Providence and Virginia Tech, a coin toss sounds about right.

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Mike Hopkins

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