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Brian Reddy: Beyond the Box Score NCAA Tournament Selection – March 3, 2024 Bracketology
1 Seeds – Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee
2 Seeds – Arizona, North Carolina, Baylor, Marquette
3 Seeds – Kansas, Creighton, Alabama, Iowa St
4 Seeds – Duke, Illinois, Auburn, BYU
5 Seeds – Texas Tech San Diego St., Kentucky, Dayton
6 Seeds – Washington St, Wisconsin Florida, South Carolina
7 Seeds – Clemson, Colorado St, Utah St, Boise St
8 Seeds – Northwestern, Mississippi St, Texas Christian, St. Mary
9 Seeds – Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, Texas, Nebraska
10 Seeds – New Mexico, Villanova, Michigan St, Gonzaga
11 Seeds – Nevada, Providence, Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Colorado
12 Seeds – WAC, CAA, Southern, MVC
13 Seeds – Ivy, Southland (McNeese St.), CUSA, Sun Belt
14 Seeds – America East, MAC, Horizon, Big West
15 Seeds – Big Sky, Big South, Ohio Valley, Summit
16 Seeds – MAAC, Patriot NEC, SWAC, MEAC, A-Sun
Conferences projected to get multiple bids (8):
American – 2
Atlantic Coast (ACC) – 5
Big 12 – 9
Big East – 7
Big Ten – 6
Mountain West – 6
Pac-12 – 2
Southeastern (SEC) – 7
Notes:
While the weekend action has moved some teams around, I did not add or delete anyone from the bracket. Most notably, I moved Tennessee to the one seed line after wins over Auburn and at Alabama this week. To me, this is Rick Barnes’ best team since the Kevin Durant Elite 8 team, and they have the mix to be playing in Phoenix come April.
Looking again at the Big East, Connecticut clinched the top seed officially at MSG, and will likely play in Brooklyn then Boston (if they win) to earn a trip to the Final Four. Creighton isplaying at an elite level right now, and a two seed is possible for them. Marquette has a real concern with Tyler Kolek’s healthand games this week against Connecticut and at Xavier may have an exaggerated effect on their seeding if Kolek has not returned. I basically flipped Villanova and Providence after the Wildcats impressive win yesterday. Georgetown plays both Providence and St. John’s this week, and DePaul plays St. John’s and Seton Hall. It is imperative for the three bubble teams to sweep the cellar dwellers, as a loss to either of them would really hurt. Providence also has a big opportunity hosting UConn, and a sweep this week would lock up a bid for them. The other major game is Villanova at Seton Hall, and would represent a big win for either, though I believe Seton Hall needs it more. Because of playing against both DePaul and Georgetown this week, St. John’s needs to win both, plus at least one at MSG to punch their ticket.
One last point I want to make is that the NCAA needs to either revamp their NET tool or simply throw it out. I have no idea what their formula is, but it appears to reward pummeling bad teams. A good example of this is Gonzaga, who has exactly two wins over teams in any type of consideration for an at-large bid, and a loss to sub-100 Santa Clara, but is ranked 17th in the NET. Conversely, Providence has wins over NCAA locksMarquette, Creighton, and Wisconsin, plus victories over St. John’s, Seton Hall, and Butler, and no bad losses, yet is ranked63rd. Even if you want to argue the benefit of metrics, it is nearly impossible to justify Gonzaga being 46 spots ahead of Providence. Finally, this isn’t an isolated case, either. Wake Forest is 31st with two tournament caliber wins (Duke and Florida) and losses to Georgia, LSU, Florida St, and Notre Dame. Beating good teams has to matter more than blowing out the Presbyterians and NJITs of the country.
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