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Brian Reddy – Beyond the Box Score: NCAA Tournament Selection – February 29th Bracketology
1 Seeds – Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona
2 Seeds – Tennessee, Marquette, North Carolina, Kansas
3 Seeds – Baylor, Alabama, Iowa St, Creighton
4 Seeds – Duke, Illinois, Auburn, BYU
5 Seeds – Wisconsin, San Diego St., Kentucky, Dayton
6 Seeds – Texas Tech, Florida, Colorado St., Washington St
7 Seeds – Clemson, St. Mary, South Carolina, Utah St
8 Seeds – Northwestern, Mississippi St, Texas Christian, Boise St
9 Seeds – Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, Michigan St, Nebraska
10 Seeds – New Mexico, Providence, Seton Hall, Texas
11 Seeds – Nevada, Gonzaga, Virginia, Villanova, St. John’s, Colorado
12 Seeds – CAA, Southern, MVC, WAC
13 Seeds – Ivy, Southland (McNeese St.), CUSA, Sun Belt
14 Seeds – America East, MAC, Horizon, Big West
15 Seeds – Big Sky, Big South, Ohio Valley, Summit
16 Seeds – MAAC, Patriot NEC, SWAC, MEAC, A-Sun
Conferences projected to get multiple bids (8):
American – 2
Atlantic Coast (ACC) – 5
Big 12 – 9
Big East – 7
Big Ten – 6
Mountain West – 6
Pac-12 – 2
Southeastern (SEC) – 7
Under consideration: Colorado, Utah, Butler
Notes:
We seem to be hitting a point where the teams competing for the bubble are getting closer together, and there are fewer questions than usual as of today. Schools such as Mississippi, Texas A&M, and Butler are playing their way out of consideration, while St. John’s appears to have responded well since Rick Pitino’s infamous press conference (3-0 since).
Looking at the Big East, Connecticut is basically locked into a one seed, and Marquette and Creighton are playing their best ball of the season right now. Since last week, I have dropped Butler while adding St. John’s, with Villanova and the Red Storm currently in the First Four. I think with wins Saturday (Villanova) and Tuesday (at Georgetown), the Friars will basically lock up an at-large bid. Seton Hall has a resume similar to Providence, with their win over UConn being better than our win over Creighton. The difference is out non-conference win over Wisconsin is better than any the Hall has, and their loss to USC looks much worse today than it did in November. The result is that I have them both on the 10 seed line. Villanova has the toughest schedule of the Big East bubble teams, but Nova, Hall, and Providence have opportunities to solidify their spots. St. John’s with only DePaul and Georgetown left, likely needs to win a game (at least) in the Big East tournament.
Looking at potential bid stealers, I have Dayton and Florida Atlantic as the automatic bids in the Atlantic 10 and AAC, respectively. They are the two schools from outside the multi-bid leagues that could add a second team. The other reasonable possibility is someone such as Utah or Colorado wins the Pac-12 tournament. My beloved GCU Antelopes likely lost their chance of an at-large bid with two last minute losses in Texas last weekend. The bottom line is that the Friars are in a strong position to once again appear in the NCAA Tournament this year, and this is a testament to the team and the staff for how they have held together after the season ending injury to Bryce Hopkins.
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