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Brian Reddy: Beyond the Box Score – NCAA Tournament Selection – Opening Bracketology
As I mentioned in my post last week, I have enjoyed trying to project the NCAA bracket for more than thirty years. As we begin the new year, I will post my initial bracket projection, then explain the rationale for some of the picks.
1 Seeds – Purdue, Kansas, Connecticut, Houston
2 Seeds – Tennessee, Marquette, Clemson, Arizona
3 Seeds – North Carolina, Baylor, BYU, Colorado St.
4 Seeds – Wisconsin, Auburn, Illinois, Memphis
5 Seeds – Oklahoma, Utah, Kentucky, San Diego St.
6 Seeds – Villanova, Duke, Texas A&M, Providence
7 Seeds – Mississippi St, Florida Atlantic, Creighton, Ohio St
8 Seeds – WAC (Grand Canyon), Iowa St, Sun Belt (JMU), Alabama
9 Seeds – New Mexico, Miami, A-10 (Dayton), Colorado
10 Seeds – Nevada, South Carolina, Northwestern, Mississippi
11 Seeds – Michigan St, Kansas St, Utah St, Texas, WCC (Gonzaga), Florida
12 Seeds – CUSA (Liberty), MVC (Indiana St), Butler, Virginia
13 Seeds – Ivy (Princeton), CAA, Southland, Horizon
14 Seeds – Big Sky, MAC, Coastal, Big West
15 Seeds – MAAC, Southern, Ohio Valley, America East
16 Seeds – NEC, SWAC, MEAC, Patriot, A-Sun, Big South
Under consideration – Washington, Florida, Drake, Oregon, St. John’s, Arkansas, Cincinnati, St. Joe’s, et al.
Conferences projected to get multiple bids (9):
American – 2
Atlantic Coast (ACC) – 5
Big 12 – 7
Big East – 6
Big Ten – 7
Mountain West – 5
Pac-12 – 3
Southeastern (SEC) – 9
Thoughts:
Many bracketology predictions either target the field if the season ended today or what they expect the bracket to look like on Selection Sunday. My bracket is a hybrid of the two. I use the data as of today in making my selections, but also look at future scheduling to influence certain picks and placements. A good example would be comparing Providence and Grand Canyon, my two favorite schools. Their resumes are very similar in terms of Q1, Q2, and Q3 records. Providence has a better win, but GCU has only one loss and a road Q1 win. The reason I have Providence a six seed and GCU and eight seed is that GCU’s potential for moving up is very limited. As of today, GCU’s best case scenario is having three more Q2 opportunities. Providence has 10 Q1 and 3 Q2 games in their 18 remaining games. It will be difficult for GCU to improve their resume, while Providence has huge opportunities going forward. The one weakness in the Friars resume is the lack of any road wins. They have a number of chances to rectify this in conference play.
My guess last week about mid-major conferences being able to get multiple bids will be even more difficult than I initially expected. James Madison, GCU, Dayton, and possibly Gonzaga have the best chances of an at-large bid if they perform well in conference play. Gonzaga in particular will have a difficult time making their case as, unlike previous years, has no Q1 wins in their non-conference schedule, and quite possibly no wins against teams that will make the field. In fact, the West Coast Conference as a whole only has a single Q1 win, by Saint Mary’s. Indiana State, Liberty, and Louisiana Tech all missed opportunities to enhance their resumes over the weekend but failed.
As there are any number of schools with similar resumes to date. I have come to believe that the NCAA tournament committee in most years values good wins more than they penalize bad losses. As the committee is not the same from year to year, this could change, but it seems to be a consistent pattern. This is why the Big 12, while widely considered to be the strongest conference, did not get more than seven bids in their expanded membership. More than half the league has no Q1 wins during the non-conference portion of the schedule, and seven of the fourteen schools are without a Q1 or Q2 win. This also helps the Big East, as Providence, Connecticut, Marquette, Creighton, Villanova, and St. John’s all have top 20 NET wins in pre-conference games.
Injuries often play a role in selections and seedings, but I am not sure how many will have much of an impact this year. The one I did consider was moving Mississippi State from a ten seed to a seven. Their top player, Tolu Smith, played his first game of the season this past weekend and picked up right where he left off. With plenty of opportunities ahead in SEC play, I can easily see the Bulldogs moving up on many brackets. They start off with four straight and eight of their first nine games against teams expected to be in the field of 68.
I plan to update my brackets every two weeks in January, followed by weekly in February, and every day or two once conference tournaments begin.
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