I first started trying to project the NCAA Tournament field in the late 1980s and was an occasional guest on Chuck Wilson’s terrific radio show on WPRO. For the last two years of his local program before he moved to ESPN, I correctly picked 64 and 63 teams (out of 64). As the internet was in its infancy, I would pour through the USA Today with the standings, Sagarin rankings, and composite schedules every week and input them into MS Works (pre-Word) to make my projections. It is much easier now with so much more data available today, and last year I was one of many who correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams (thanks a lot Nevada) and had over 60 either accurately seeded or within one seed line.
Annually, as the non-conference schedule comes to a conclusion, I start to sort out teams that have any reasonable shot of getting a bid, then winnow it down as conference play progresses. I will then start making and adjusting projections from there. Given the opportunity by Mike Hopkins (Mr. PCBB1917) to express my thoughts and opinions here, it seemed like a good opportunity to show how this bracketology process comes together for me. First, I start with..
Conferences locked into one bid (20):
Atlantic Sun, America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Coastal (CAA), Horizon, Ivy, Metro (MAAC), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern (MEAC), Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern (SWAC), Summit.
From there, I move to…
Conferences with a potential second bid (5):
Atlantic 10 – Dayton, with non-conference wins over LSU, St. Johns, Cincinnati (all neutral), and SMU (road) could withstand a tournament loss if they take care of business during conference play.
Conference USA – Liberty has a solid KenPom and NET ranking, but unless they upset Alabama this week, they won’t have a signature win. They’ll need to be close to unbeaten in conference play to have a strong case for an at-large bid.
Missouri Valley (MVC) – Indiana State, like Liberty has quality KenPom and NET numbers without a signature win. They’ll have one more opportunity this week at Michigan State. Their conference mate Drake could also have a chance, and their win over Nevada keeps looking better.
Sun Belt – James Madison is in great shape and as long as they take care of business in conference play, the conference tournament will be for seeding.
Western Athletic (WAC) – Grand Canyon (an alma mater of mine; Editor’s note: he has a lot of alma maters) has a top 40 NET, 61 KenPom ranking, and unlike a number of other schools, has wins over San Diego State, San Francisco (neutral), and Liberty (road). The WAC also incorporates the NET and KenPom into their tournament seeding criteria in an attempt to give schools the best chance to get an at-large bid.
The final group is the…
Conferences expected to get multiple bids (9):
American – Florida Atlantic and Memphis are pretty much locked into bids, even if another member wins the conference tournament.
Atlantic Coast (ACC) – North Carolina, Duke, and Clemsonlook good, with Miami, Virginia, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and NC State needing help in conference play.
Big 12 – Twelve of the fourteen teams in the conference are in the top 85 of NET and top 78 of KenPom. Houston, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, and BYU are playing for seeding, with everyone else but Oklahoma St and West Virgina having a chance.
Big East – Similar to the Big 12, the Big East has 9 of 11 teams in the top 80 of KenPom and top 88 of NET. Connecticut and Marquette are set, Providence, Creighton, and Villanovalooking strong, with St. John’s, Butler, Xavier, and Seton Hall needing to solidify their resumes.
Big Ten – The Big Ten has Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin as locks, with everyone but Penn State having a shot. I would guess that Ohio State and Michigan State are the strongest of the rest.
Mountain West – This conference is following up last year’s strong showing with another good start. Colorado State, Nevada, San Diego State, and New Mexico appear to be ahead of Boise State and Utah State in what should be another four-bid season.
Pac-12 – In their final season, the Pac-12 has Arizona, Colorado, and Utah looking very strong, with everyone but Arizona State, California, and Oregon State needing to improve their stock over the next two-plus months.
Southeastern (SEC) – Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, and Mississippi State appear to be locks, with Florida and Texas A&M in good shape. Alabama, Mississippi (despite their unbeaten record to date), Arkansas, South Carolina, and Georgia have work to do, and Missouri and LSU need a turnaround from subpar non-conference play.
West Coast Conference (WCC) – Gonzaga is set again, though not as strong as in past years, while Saint Mary’s and San Francisco are in position to make their case over the next ten weeks.
Over the coming weeks I will fine-tune these selections, but my earliest guess is that the 20 one-bid conferences will not change. From the group of five conferences with multiple bid opportunities, it is likely that no more than one will get a second bid. That brings the total to 26 bids. From there, the American and West Coast Conference will get two each. The Mountain West and Pac-12 will get four each, with the ACC and Big East grabbing five slots apiece. This would leave six for the Big Ten, and seven each for the SEC and Big 12. Obviously, these numbers for the top conferences can and likely will fluctuate between now and mid-March, but this gives us a rough blueprint of what to look for as conference play begins.
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