Ken Pomeroy does a log5 analysis prior to each conference’s tournament. For those unfamiliar with what log5 is, here’s a quick and dirty explanation. log5 is a formula that was created by famed baseball writer and statistician Bill James. James’ formula uses team A’s winning percentage and team B’s winning percentage to come up with the probability that team A wins. Kenpom’s version uses his Pythagorean Rating in place of winning perentage. I’ll give you the precise formula and an example at the end of the article for those truly interested in that stuff.
Here is Kenpom’s log5 for the Big East Tournament:
| Seed | Team | Qtrs | Semis | Final | Champ |
| 1 | Villanova | 100.0% | 91.7% | 67.5% | 51.7% |
| 2 | Georgetown | 100.0% | 80.3% | 42.1% | 13.8% |
| 5 | St. John’s | 100.0% | 66.1% | 23.0% | 13.6% |
| 3 | Butler | 100.0% | 53.6% | 29.5% | 9.5% |
| 6 | Xavier | 100.0% | 46.4% | 24.0% | 7.1% |
| 4 | Providence | 100.0% | 33.9% | 7.7% | 3.3% |
| 10 | Creighton | 65.2% | 14.9% | 3.7% | 0.5% |
| 8 | Seton Hall | 60.1% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 9 | Marquette | 39.9% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.08% |
| 7 | DePaul | 34.8% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.06% |
Kenpom has St. John’s in the 3rd slot but that’s probably because his numbers give the Red Storm the home court advantage. While it certainly is St. John’s home court for many of their home games the advantage part probably won’t be as much of a factor as if it were a regular Big East game. Kenpom mentions that in his blog post.
I’m a little surprised to see Xavier ahead of Providence in terms of odds but when you think about the fact that Providence has to play St. John’s and then likely Villanova to get to the final you can start to understand why the numbers may have been stacked up against the Friars. This is a big reason why winning on Saturday and getting the 2 seed was so critical. Providence would have avoided St. John’s in the quarterfinals and been able to hold off on meeting the Wildcats until the finals.
Kenpom also revealed his All-kenpom.com team for the Big East:
- Daniel Ochefu, Villanova (kPOY)
- Darrun Hilliard, Villanova
- Kris Dunn, Providence
- JayVaughn Pinkston, Villanova
- D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown
Here is the log5 formula as promised above:
P(W) = (A – A * B) / (A + B – 2*A*B)
Let’s do an example together so you can see that formula in action.
Team A=Butler and Team B=Xavier
A,B = (.8711-.8711*.8541)/(.8711+.8541-2*.8711*.8541)
The result of the formula is 0.5358367. Butler has a 53.6% chance of beating Xavier in Thursday’s quarterfinal matchup.
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