1 Seeds – Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona
2 Seeds – Tennessee, Marquette, Kansas, North Carolina
3 Seeds – Baylor, Alabama, Iowa St, Creighton
4 Seeds – Duke, Illinois, Auburn, San Diego St
5 Seeds – Wisconsin, Utah St, Kentucky, Dayton
6 Seeds – BYU, Texas Tech, Florida, Colorado St.
7 Seeds – Clemson, Colorado St., St. Mary, South Carolina
8 Seeds – Oklahoma, New Mexico, Washington St. Texas Christian
9 Seeds – Northwestern, Boise St, Florida Atlantic, Michigan St
10 Seeds – Providence, Butler, Seton Hall, Grand Canyon
11 Seeds – Nevada, Mississippi St, Gonzaga, Texas, Villanova, Texas A&M
12 Seeds – MVC (Indiana St), AAC (USF), Southern (Samford), Southland (McNeese St)
13 Seeds – Ivy, CAA, CUSA, Sun Belt
14 Seeds – America East, MAC, Big West, Ohio Valley
15 Seeds – MAAC, Big South, Ohio Valley, America East
16 Seeds – NEC, SWAC, MEAC, Patriot, A-Sun, Horizon
Conferences projected to get multiple bids (8):
American – 2
Atlantic Coast (ACC) – 4
Big 12 – 9
Big East – 7
Big Ten – 5
Mountain West – 6
Pac-12 – 2
Southeastern (SEC) – 7
Under consideration: Nebraska, Mississippi, Colorado, St. John’s, Utah, Cincinnati
Notes:
I did not plan to get a certain number of teams from the top conferences when putting this bracket together, but I think the number of teams in the field is reflective of the strength of the various leagues. The Big 12, despite my belief that they have figured out how to game the system a little, is clearly the best conference in the country, followed by the Big East and Southeastern Conference.
Looking at the Big East, I believe Connecticut is the best team in the country at this point, and also shows the strength and depth of the conference. In the last two seasons, the Huskies are 27-1 outside of the league, with all 27 wins by double digits, and their only loss was a game in which Cam Spencer was injured. Conversely, they are 14-2 this year in the Big East with half their wins by single digits. Creighton has played much better of late, winning 7 of 9 with their 2 losses being by one to Butler and in overtime at Providence. They have also averaged 87 points per game over this stretch, and their domination of UConn Tuesday showed their potential. Marquette has been a top ten team all season, and has won 9 of 10, losing only to UConn.
I have Providence, Butler, and Seton Hall all together, which was not planned. This is due to my belief that the committee will reward big wins, especially if there are none or a few bad losses. Providence has beaten three teams with potential top four seeds, as has Butler. Seton Hall has the best win of any bubble-ish team, beating Connecticut. Villanova also has wins over three top level teams, but has some very questionable losses, pushing them into the First Four. St. John’s is somewhat under consideration, but some of their early opponents (e.g. Michigan, Utah, and West Virginia) have not been as good as expected. They need to win out plus win a couple in the Big East tournament to have any chance at an at-large bid.
(Editor’s note: say happy birthday to Brian today!)