Final Thoughts of Ed Cooley
The first true conversation I had with Ed Cooley was during the spring of 2011, shortly after he had been named the new coach of the Friars. Every Saturday evening, my then 10-year-old daughter used to take a walk through the campus, and just happened upon him near the Slavin Center. I wished him luck next year and was prepared to keep walking when he engaged us in a roughly 30-minute conversation. I told him we bought season tickets again the day of his introductory press conference, and he asked my daughter several questions about the team and was shocked that she knew the players. At the end he gave my daughter his card and told her to reach out anytime. She left convinced he was the greatest coach on earth. We had a close relationship over the years, and my daughter loved talking with him right up until she last spoke with him after Providence lost to UConn in the Big East Tournament last year.
Because of all this, the idea that we would be at this point with Ed Cooley in Friartown was beyond my comprehension. Of course, outside factors were at play. There’s no need to go into personal issues, but with this being Rhode Island (State Motto: I Know a Guy), there is ample knowledge of events. In my opinion, things would have turned out differently under two circumstances. If the staff and team finished the season as they had been on February 18th and made it to whatever point their abilities took them, people would have been unhappy but would have great memories of the season. The other possibility would have been if he acknowledged the difficulty of the distractions without getting into specifics and admitted that it affected his efforts to maintain control of the team. Again, it would not have made everything okay, but it would have lessened some of the vitriol. Instead, his media friends denigrated Providence compared to Georgetown, and his Divine Providence comment at his introductory press conference left an indelible mark on the Friar psyche. Time will heal all wounds with this situation, but he will never be viewed in the same manner by me.
Big East at the Midway Point
As the season is at the midpoint, it’s time to look at where the Big East teams stand relative to their NCAA chances. Connecticut, Marquette, and Creighton are basically playing for seeding, with UConn looking at a top seed and Marquette and Creighton hoping to be in the 2-4 seed range. At the other end of the spectrum, Georgetown and DePaul have no hopes of the NIT, never mind the NCAA tournament, and will try to be spoilers. The intrigue is with the middle six teams.
The team I believe is in the best position as of today is Butler. They have road wins over Creighton and Marquette, a neutral win over Boise State, and a home win over Texas Tech, with no bad losses. Because they don’t blow out many teams, their metrics belie what they have accomplished. They do have seven of their final eight games against other teams competing for a tournament bid. My guess is that four wins is enough, but five wins will lock up a bid.
Next up is Seton Hall, which along with Villanova has the most confusing resume. Losses to Iowa, USC, and Rutgers in non-conference play have aged poorly. On the other side, they already have seven conference wins, including a victory over top-ranked UConn. The selection committee tends to reward good wins more than they penalize bad losses, which should help the Pirates. My guess is that they need to beat DePaul, plus three other wins to be in decent shape.
As mentioned above, Villanova also has “unique” resume. Losses to Penn, St. Joes, and Drexel is countered by wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, Memphis (all neutral site) and at Creighton. Because of their 12-11 current record, I believe they need to go 6-2 over the final nine games to have any chance, barring a run in the Big East Tournament. They have already played DePaul twice, but still have two games against Georgetown. Given their early losses, those two games are close to must-win for them. They also have two games against Seton Hall, and if either team sweeps, it would possibly eliminate the other team from consideration.
The team with the lowest chance for the tournament is Xavier. Their best wins are against St. Mary’s, Cincinnati, at Providence, and Butler, none of whom are currently locks for a bid. They have plenty of opportunities left, but my guess is they need to go a minimum of 6-2 down the stretch, and probably would still need a win in the BET. The shame is that with Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter healthy, they would likely be near the top of the league.
St. John’s looked like a lock and potential top 4-6 seed after getting by Providence four weeks ago. Since then, they have lost five out of six, and could easily miss the tournament in Rick Pitino’s first year. They also have fewer opportunities to strengthen their resume as three of their final eight games are against Georgetown and DePaul. Given that they also have no wins against lock NCAA teams and losses to Boston College and Michigan, sweeping those three games is a must, and they likely still need two to three more wins (including the BET) to be in good shape.
Last but not least is our beloved Friars. Maybe it’s my personal bias, but I believe the Friars are in better shape than most. I have engaged in bracketology as a hobby for nearly 35 years, initially using the weekly USA Today expanded standings, their published Sagarin ratings, and the nascent Prodigy internet offerings, and have gotten a good feel for what the committees look for. Providence currently has huge wins against Wisconsin, Marquette, and Creighton, plus wins at Seton Hall and Butler, with no bad losses. If they go 4-4 (assuming wins over Georgetown and DePaul), they will probably be in, likely as a First Four team. A 5-3 record would give a lot more breathing space. This would make their resume comparable to last year, when they had wins over UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, but losses to St. Johns, Seton Hall, and Saint Louis. I believe they were the second 11 seed last year, meaning six teams were selected after them. That cushion should be similar this season.
One final note: do not get too caught up in Q1 and Q2 records that you will hear mentioned repeatedly over the next five weeks. The NET system is simply a method of sorting, and the committee team sheets list every game for teams under consideration. So, while wins over Connecticut or at Samford are both listed as Q1 wins, the committee clearly does not view them equally.