Games Notes & Preview: Providence (5-1) vs Wagner (2-3) 11/28/2023

📅 Date & Time: Tuesday, November 28, 2023, at 7:00 p.m.

📍 Venue: Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, R.I.

📺 Broadcast: FS1 with Josh Sims and Nick Bahe (Fox Sports App); Radio with John Rooke and Joe Hassett on WPRO-99.7 FM/630 AM (The Varsity Network App & YouTube); FriarTV

🤑 Opening Line: Providence -22, Over/Under 121

Providence College Friars:

• Record: 5-1
• Last Game Starters:
  • Garwey Dual, Fr., G, 6.0 ppg/2.2 apg
  • Ticket Gaines, Gr., G, 5.8 ppg/4.3 rpg
  • Josh Oduro, Gr., F, 15.0 ppg/6.7 rpg
  • Devin Carter, Jr., G, 15.5 ppg/7.5 rpg
  • Bryce Hopkins, Jr., F/G, 15.7 ppg/9.3 rpg
• Recent Performances:
  • Bryce Hopkins notched his 13th career double-double last time out against Lehigh with a season-best performance of 25 points and 14 rebounds. Hopkins leads the Big East in free throw attempts at 44 and minutes played per game at 35.3.
  • Josh Oduro led the Friars in scoring last time out against Lehigh with 29 points on 13/18 from the field. That marks a Providence career high for Oduro but his overall career high in scoring is 33 points which happened on February 16, 2022 while at George Mason in a game at St. Joe’s.
  • Providence is tied with UConn for the Big East lead in blocked shots with a 6.0 bpg average through 6 games
• Historical Performances:
  • Providence is 4-0 all-time against Wagner with 2 wins coming in 1947, 1 win in 1988 and, most recently, December 17, 2016. All but 1 of those games was played in Providence. The Friars are 43-5 all-time against NEC teams with their last game against anyone from that league coming on November 21, 2022 when Providence defeated Merrimack, 71-57, at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center.
• Stat Leaders:
  • Points/Game – Bryce Hopkins, 15.7
  • Rebounds/Game – Bryce Hopkins, 9.3
  • Assists/Game – Devin Carter, 3.3
  • Minutes/Game – Bryce Hopkins, 35.3

Wagner Seahawks

• Record: 2-3
• Last Game Starters:
  • Javier Ezquerra, Jr., G, 6.4 ppg/3 apg
  • Di’Andre Howell-South, R-So., G, 1.4 ppg/1.2 rpg
  • Tyje Kelton, Jr., F, 9.6 ppg/6.0 rpg
  • Zaire Williams, Jr., G, 5.0 ppg/1.8 rpg
  • Keyontae Lewis, So., F, 5.0 ppg/3.4 rpg
• Recent Performances:
  • Wagner is coming off a victory last time out over NJIT, 64-51, on Saturday at home. That snapped a two-game losing streak dropping road contests against URI and Seton Hall. The Seahawks’ other win this season came at home against Division 2 Molloy on November 9th.
• Stat Leaders:
  • Points/Game – Melvin Council, Jr., 13.2
  • Rebounds/Game – Tyje Kelton, 6.0
  • Assists/Game – Javier Ezquerra, 3.0
  • Minutes/Game – Rahmir Moore, 30.0

Quote Corner: “The game is simple. If you’re open shoot it. If you’re not pass it. When you pass it cut. If two people are on you pass it. We want to get to the paint. We want to shoot open 3’s…The game is simple played by complicated individuals.” – Kim English after Providence’s win against Lehigh.

Game Preview:

Providence is coming off a comfortable win over Lehigh that also felt like their worst intensity game of their first six contests with Kim English at the helm. While Bryce Hopkins and Josh Oduro put up impressive stat lines — and there’s every expectation that should happen again given the physical advantage both players will have against Wagner — the rest of the team looked sluggish and listless. Again, the game was never truly in doubt against Lehigh, but in order to have excellent metrics like the NET teams like Providence have to annihilate teams like Lehigh and Wagner who are both very likely to be quad 4 opponents on Providence’s resume by March.

Wagner plays very slow. They are dead last — 362nd — nationally in Adjusted Tempo, per Kenpom. Even in their commanding win against Division 2 Molloy there were only 69 possessions which was the high mark through their 5 games. The other 3 games that didn’t include overtime (Wagner lost at Fordham in OT to open the season and that game had 68 possessions) have had possession totals of 62, 62 and 61. Providence has had 70+ possessions in 4 of their 6 games so far. Kenpom is predicting 61 possessions in this game. The Seahawks are susceptible on the defensive glass where they rank 313th nationally in giving up offensive rebounds at a rate of 34.5%. They also send their opponents to the free throw line at a very high clip resulting in a FTA/FGA ratio of 41.0 against the Division 1 average of 33.5.

On the other side, Wagner has defended the 3-point line very well and they have been good at forcing steals from their opponents. While Kim English wants to shoot open 3’s, the Friars have not been connecting on those attempts from downtown at a very high clip. I’d expect Wagner to try to let Providence shoot 3’s rather than get the ball inside to Oduro and try to keep Hopkins out of the paint. Providence will likely be looking to get the ball in the hands of Oduro to either score or facilitate if Wagner tries to double as the George Mason transfer is a very adept passer. There is certainly a lookahead, trap game factor in the air with the in-state rivalry game against URI up next this weekend, but I expect Kim English to have his team focused and prepared for the tilt against Wagner.

While English indicated after the Lehigh game that point guard Jayden Pierre continues to make progress with his groin injury, English cautioned that the nature of the injury means they are being conservative to ensure Pierre is fully healed and ready to avoid a re-injury that would cost the sophomore lead guard more time in the long run. Expect Pierre to sit in this game and for freshman Garwey Dual to start at point guard with Corey Floyd, Jr. behind Dual. Rahmir Moore has missed Wagner’s last two games with a wrist injury, but it sounds likely he may return to action against Providence. Moore came off the bench in the 3 games he played to start the season and leads the team in minutes per game.

Final Thoughts: Providence’s efficient offense, aggressive defense, and ability to force turnovers and draw fouls stand out. Wagner’s slower pace and reliance on 3-point shooting could be pivotal. If the Seahawks are connecting from deep they could hang around. If they aren’t hitting from beyond the arc and Providence limits turnovers and make free throws this could be the first real blowout of the season for the Friars.

Score Prediction: 71-52

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Mike Hopkins

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