Brian Reddy: Beyond the Box Score – First Chunk of the Season

In the 1970s, television comedy changed in how the main characters were viewed by viewers. Previously, most of the stars were extremely honorable community leaders (Andy Griffith), regular decent guys (Dick Van Dyke), and rich people in silly situations (Green Acres and the Beverly Hillbillies). The next decade saw main characters being highly flawed “regular people” that did not represent an ideal. Arguably the two biggest TV stars in this decade were Archie Bunker and Fred Sanford. They were played in an unbelievably realistic manner by Carroll O’Connor and Redd Foxx respectively. Both actors had another thing in common in addition to their on-screen brilliance; the desire for more money, and they both went on strike from their shows over money. They each missed a number of shows over their contracts, and the shows went on without them in this period. The supporting casts were highly talented and were given a chance to shine in the stars’ absences, and did so admirably. The reality is both shows missed their stars and viewers were thrilled with the return of their leaders. It ended up being for the better as both shows ended up with better developed castmates to surround the stars.

This brings us to the Providence Friars and the pending return of Bryce Hopkins. Whether it is this week in the Bahamas or shortly after, Bryce will be welcomed back to the court and (hopefully) take his place at the top of the Friar pecking order. Bryce is one of the best players in the country and if he hadn’t had his knee injury might be in the NBA now or would have been on most All-American teams in the preseason. While the Friars have strong talent and great depth, there’s no doubt that Hopkins is the straw that stirs the Friars drink. A strong return from Bryce is essential to the Friars’ chance to have an extended post-season run. Regarding his injury, I am hopeful that his return will bring him close to or at 100% fairly quickly. My very unscientific review of such injuries indicates that guards and smaller players have a longer recovery period, both because of their size and their reliance on speed. Jovan Blacksher is a good example of this. He was the 2023 preseason player of the year in the WAC for Grand Canyon University but suffered a torn ACL in early January. He was out nearly a full year and when he returned, he did not have the same speed and quickness. Being a 5’10” guard made this a problem, and he was not going to have a starting role if he returned. Instead, he received an offer from California with no guarantees. His speed has returned and he’s averaging over 16 points per game while shooting over 50% from three. Given Bryce’s physical skillset, I expect his return to go much more smoothly.

The other benefit for the Friars is similar to the casts of All in the Family and Sanford and Son. The supporting actors were able to show their talents while keeping their franchises afloat in the absence of the stars. Similarly, the Friars have seen a lot of positives from the rest of their roster. Corey Floyd Jr. has been an elite defender while his offense has grown to where it was projected to be. Jayden Pierre appears to have taken that leap we all expected and has improved on both sides of the ball. Wesley Cardet has gotten more comfortable offensively and has combined with Floyd to be one of the best sets of wing defenders in the country. Bensley Joseph has been as expected and has also been the clear leader of the team on the floor with his efforts and attitude. Oswin Erhunmwunse has shown his immense physical skills, including the ability to alter opposing offenses just by his presence. Finally, Ryan Mela quickly showed the faith Coach Dennis Felton and the Friar staff when they offered him early was justified. Other players have been hit or miss, but all have had their moments. Jabri Abdur-Rahim showed in the Stonehill game how well he can shoot, and Christ Essandoko, Rich Barron, and Justyn Fernandez all had their best game in their last outing against Delaware State. Having Bryce Hopkins as the team’s focal point should make things easier for everyone else, including the coaching staff and fans.

Big East News and Notes

Through the first three weeks of the season, we have been given a taste of what’s to come, and how my early prognostications might look. Creighton was looking fine until last Friday night. They lost to in-state rival Nebraska, suffered an injury to the only true point guard, and somehow Ryan Kalkbrenner was held to one shot, a three-pointer that he missed. They will struggle for as long as Steven Ashworth is out and may have given opponents a blueprint to slow down Kalkbrenner, who had been unstoppable to this point.

St. John’s has shown both how talented they are and also how vulnerable they are at the same time. While they are still adjusting with six different starting lineups in seven games, RJ Luis, Zuby Ejiofor, and Aaron Scott have fit in well to Rick Pitino’s style, while Deivon Smith, Kadary Richmond, and Simeon Wilcher have been up and down. A bigger concern is that there are rumors from Queens that Richmond has been unhappy with his role to date, and he and Pitino have had issues. St. John’s needs Richmond to be fully invested to reach their potential of a second weekend team.

Connecticut has played four sub-320 teams to date and destroyed them. The Memphis loss on Monday in the opening game of the Maui Invitational gave them a lesson but also showed the value of Soloman Ball and Liam McNeeley. It’s hard to learn too much until this week’s games in Hawaii are complete, but it’s clear that they are extremely talented, and that McNeeley is one of the top freshmen and players in the country. Tarris Reed has filled his role admirably, Hassan Diarra has shown leadership, Ball and Jaylin Stewart are significantly improved, and Alex Karaban continues to do Alex Karaban things. I still believe they will have a struggle or two during the season but they will be at their best come March. The big question is whether Aidan Mahaney is part of the equation.

Xavier is another team that has answered all questions about them and appears to be a strong NCAA tournament caliber team. Zach Freemantle picked up where he left off two years ago in impressive fashion, and Ryan Conwell has played as advertised. Dayvion McKnight and Dailyn Swain have meshed well, and Xavier’s team defense has been a strong suit for them. Their only concern is the lack of a true center, but they may use a center by committee approach.

Marquette has played like a top ten team so far, and their wins at Maryland, vs Purdue, and against Georgia in the Bahamas are the most impressive of any conference team. Kam Jones has put himself into the national player of the year conversation and Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell have both been terrific, while David Joplin and Ben Gold have had their moments. I was concerned about how the Eagles would adjust to the losses of Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro, but to date they have looked as impressive as they did last year.

The other positive team I will mention is DePaul. In discussing their off-season moves of an entire new roster, I mentioned that I liked Chris Holtmann’s move to bring in a bunch of low-priced shooters and hope for the best. So far, the plan has worked out very well. DePaul has five players shooting over 40% from three on volume shooting, for a team rate of 41%. David Skogman is at 53% to lead the team, and the eFG rate currently is at 61%. Obviously, that is not likely to continue, but it makes my six conference win projection for them look realistic.

Butler and Seton Hall have both been a mixed bag. Butler’s loss to Austin Peay is balanced by a win against a solid if unspectacular Southern Methodist team. They still haven’t solved their problem with a lack of a starting center, choosing to go small and keeping Andre Screen as a 15 minute per game reserve. I do not know if that will be sustainable come conference play, but it appears to be their best option at the moment. Seton Hall’s season depends on how one views their team. They really aren’t expected to compete for the conference championship, and losses to Fordham and Hofstra reinforce that. On the other hand, they have solid wins over VCU and Florida Atlantic, and both of their losses were by a single point. I will stick by my prediction that they will surprise a team or two in conference play but finish near the bottom of the league.

I have a hard time finding a lot of positiveness for Villanova to date. Yesterday they lost to a solid Maryland team despite 38 points from star Eric Dixon. This could be a recurring situation as the year progresses. Their other problem is that their defense is not good at all despite their slow pace. They have given up 90 to Columbia, 83 to Saint Joe’s, and most shockingly, a season high 70 points to Virginia. For comparison, Virginia has scored 42 against Tennessee and 55 against St. John’s in the two games since they beat Villanova. They need something to change and quick, because being 3-4 while Eric Dixon is shooting 54% from three is unsustainable.

Finally, Georgetown is 4-1 with Jayden Epps playing team ball, and Micah Peavy and Thomas Sorber looking even better than expected. The problem is no one else stepped up for the Hoyas, and their defense is terrible so far. Opponents are shooting nearly 10% better from three than Georgetown, and the adequate team they played steamrolled them. Malik Mack is a defensive liability and his shooting to date is reminiscent of how he looked after returning from mono than before, and Drew Fielder appears to have regressed. Other than possibly Julius Halaifonua, no one else appears ready to make an impact this year.

As we get to see the teams upgrade their competition in the coming weeks, I will provide a further update on the schools. It promises to be another exciting season in the Big East. If you are looking to interact with fellow Friar fanatics, the pcbb1917 Discord has both paid and free options. Joining will be the best decision of your life. Go Friars.

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