If you are fortunate enough to be heading to the Bahamas this week with the Friars have a Hurricane at the Moon Bar for me. Feast week has begun today with games tipping off starting at 10:30am ET. This is always a fun time to be a college basketball fan with your favorite team likely heading somewhere (hopefully tropical) for their annual multi-team event (MTE), or if you’re Georgetown staying on campus for your own sad creation of an MTE, but I digress. Providence flies down to Atlantis on Monday and they’ll get their first taste of high major competition when they play Oklahoma on Wednesday in their first ever Battle 4 Atlantis tournament appearance. The Friars and Sooners played last season as part of the Big East-Big 12 Battle organized by Fox Sports and Porter Moser’s bunch got the better of Providence in Norman to the tune of a 72-51 drubbing. More on PC/Oklahoma in a preview article out in a day or two. For now, this Monday Mindset is focused on what this upcoming stretch of season can tell us about the 2024-25 Providence Friars.
Entering the Battle 4 Atlantis at 5-0 was certainly the plan, but doing it in the fashion they did it maybe wasn’t how Kim English and his staff envisioned things going when they scheduled one of the weaker first 5 game schedules in college basketball. Figuring they would be without Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins when they were putting this schedule together turned out to be true. However, they have said their thought was both would be in the NBA this season which is true of Carter, who had successful shoulder surgery and could make his debut for the Sacramento Kings in January. Similarly, Hopkins has yet to step on the court this season, though reports came out — likely from a group text that both John Fanta and Jeff Goodman got at the same time — over the weekend that Hopkins is “likely to make his season debut” on Wednesday against Oklahoma after not having seen real action since tearing his ACL on January 3, 2024 against Seton Hall. If Providence’s best player does in fact suit up on Wednesday against Oklahoma you’d have to imagine he’ll be on a minutes restriction given he was just recently cleared for full action and had his first live practice one week ago today, the day prior to Providence’s last game against Delaware State. It remains to be seen what English and staff saw of Hopkins over this week and how his knee is handling being back in live action in practice. And then do they really play him in 3 games over 3 days right after being back from nearly 11 months on the shelf with injury? More questions than answers, which is sort of how you’d describe the overall viewpoint of Providence’s season so far.
Bensley Joseph came out of the gate hot with 21 points in his debut against Central Connecticut State in an effort that effectively saved the Friars from an season opening loss for the first time since Keno Davis lost his very first game as the head coach of the Friars on November 15, 2008 at the hands of Bill Coen and Northeastern. That was probably a divine sign, sadly. Game two was more comfortable in terms of margin of victory (76-49) against Stonehill but a woeful 1.03 points per possession and 21 turnovers on 72 possessions (29.2% Turnover Rate) left much to be desired. Games three saw the return of former Friar assistant and RI restaurant thanker Ivan Thomas with his Hampton squad that gave Providence a run for their money (literally, it was a buy game). Another sub-par offensive performance of exactly 1.0 point per possession to go along with other gross stats like 10/20 at the free throw line and a 23.3% Turnover Rate — 14 might not look as bad on paper but the game only had 60 possessions! — didn’t leave the Friar faithful feeling very good about their squad. Game four against the Fighting Doug Gottlieb’s of Green Bay presented similar challenges where Providence was tied at 36 at the half, but this time they really limited turnovers — just 6 in 67 possession for a 9.0% Turnover Rate — and turned the offensive jets on at the end to pull away for the win after trailing, 50-43, with 15:11 to go in the game. Game five was the best of the bunch last time out against Delaware State. A season-best 1.30 points per possession went along with a solid 16.7% Turnover Rate and 0.80 points per possession allowed by the defense.
The Friars won by 30 and people seemed happier with the performance after the game, but looking at box scores of all five games it is wildly unclear who the team’s leader(s) and best player(s) are so far. They’ve had several different players be leading scorer and no one has clearly taken up the mantle as the team’s leader. That’s where Hopkins comes in, everyone hopes. Jayden Pierre has seemed much more comfortable the last two games which is a good sign, and others like Corey Floyd and Wesley Cardet have shown lots of value even when not scoring the ball, though both have done it a bit through 5 games. Christ Essandoko has cut down on his turnovers and looked better, but he’s not Josh Oduro and anyone expecting him to match Oduro’s production, at least right away, are likely disappointed. There have been nice moments from Ryan Mela and Eli DeLaurier and even Justyn Fernandez who made a few 3’s against Delaware State.
But the quality of opponent is jumping up several weight classes. The average Kenpom Net Rating — the difference between a team’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which makes up the “rating” to rank teams at Kenpom; used to be called Adjusted Efficiency Margin, or AdjEM — of Providence’s 5 opponents so far is -11.49. The average Kenpom Net Rating of the rest of the field in Battle 4 Atlantis is +15.90. The worst Net Rating opponent is Delaware State at -17.51 and the worst possible opponent in Battle 4 Atlantis is Davidson at +4.51. There is a real path for Providence (+10.57) to play Oklahoma (+15.25), Arizona (+20.02) and Gonzaga (+30.59, currently only behind Houston by 0.38 in Net Rating for the top spot at Kenpom). Even the “worst” outcome would be Oklahoma, Davidson and West Virginia (+10.80). The next week presents a great opportunity, but things also won’t slow down much the rest of the way. The Friars return to take on BYU at home on December 3rd and the Cougars are currently 5-0 with a Net Rating of +19.47, good for 25th in Kenpom followed by a road game at URI (+9.47) who is also currently 5-0 and then Providence opens Big East play at a significantly improved DePaul team in Chicago. As of right now, Providence’s “worst” opponent the rest of the season is Georgetown who is 4-1 and sports the 111th best Net Rating of +5.25. The bottom-line is the days of playing teams with negative Net Ratings in the comforts of your home arena are in the rearview mirror. Opportunity is knocking and Providence mostly has questions and not answers when the door swings open on Wednesday.
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