16 turnovers. 25% from 3. 1 player in double figures. Didn’t break 60. Gross. But….1-0. That’s the big takeaway from Providence’s season opener that wasn’t the most aesthetically pleasing effort in front of the home crowd at the Amica Mutual Pavilion on Monday night. Central Connecticut is undoubtedly an experienced group that has been together for several years while Providence had 3 new players to the program in the starting 5 with Bensley Joseph, Wesley Cardet and Oswin Erhunmwunse joining returners Jayden Pierre and Corey Floyd. It was certainly ugly, but the ugliness on the defensive side was a positive of the night. The Friars held the Blue Devils to 31% shooting from the field, well below English’s goal of under 40%. Central Connecticut also failed to make a single 3-pointer which broke a streak of 273 games going back to January 31, 2015 with at least one 3-pointer conversion. This was the first time since 2010 that Providence held an opponent 3-point-less.
Allowing 0.87 points/possession is a very good metric. It’s obviously a 1-game sample size for everyone last night but the effective FG% Providence held Central Connecticut to, 31.5%, ranks 5th best nationally at Kenpom with the D-1 Average being 50.6%. Providence finished last season 38th in that metric at 47.5%.
The offensive side of the ball presents more concerns with the main thing that jumps off the box score page — and also my eyeballs while watching the game — was the turnovers. They had 16 for the game but in the early stages they had turned it over more times than they’d made a field goal. I mentioned in my preview for this game that Jayden Pierre would be a key piece for Providence if they are to be successful and what I meant was mainly on the offensive end. Pierre turned it over 3 times while assisting 0 times. The offense looked stagnant and, frankly, like these guys hadn’t played a lot together in practice which….is true. That’s not an excuse fans want to hear, but it’s something Kim English mentioned in the postgame press conference and it…makes sense. That doesn’t mean it’s something fans or the committee will care about if this team is on the wrong side of the bubble after barely beating a team the predictive metrics had as a ~20 point blowout win. Christ Essandoko was the leader with 5 giveaways and at one point English called out one of them in a huddle during a timeout that aired on the broadcast coming out of a commercial break. It wasn’t quite the viral moment that Patrick Ewing had several years ago after his big man, Marcus Derrickson, took a one-legged step back 3-pointer but English basically had the same message for Essandoko last night: don’t do it because we don’t practice it. Another common refrain from English was mentioned several times in the postgame which is his belief that teams and players don’t rise to the occasion but instead fall to the level of their preparation.
This can be applied to the lack of practice time many of the key pieces have had over the last few weeks, but English also used it as a positive when talking about the performance of Bensley Joseph, who basically saved the day for Providence (we added a Mercedes Benz emoji to the Discord last night in his honor) by scoring 21 points and two critical 3-pointers late in the game to give them the lead at 55-53 with 2:04 that they wouldn’t relinquish after Pierre iced the game by sinking two free throws with 18 seconds left.
Obviously not having Bryce Hopkins is going to mean a lesser version of this team. He’s a 1st Team All-Big East level player who, when health and right, has the potential to be an All-American. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the pieces couldn’t do better than 0.94 points/possession on offense against a team that, while they might win their league again, is going to very likely be a Q4 opponent on Providence’s team sheet come March. It was a disappointing season opener….but it as a win. This group, still likely without Hopkins, will get another chance to pummel a bad opponent as the metric overlords require on Saturday against Stonehill who is ranked even worse in Kenpom than Central Connecticut at 357 (out of 364), another likely Q4 opponent for the Friars. The Skyhawks beat Division 3 Framingham State on Monday night, 81-62, but will get a D1 test on Wednesday against Notre Dame before traveling back from Indiana to face the Friars at the AMP. The current Kenpom prediction for that weekend tilt is Providence winning, 81-57. If English and the Friars want to be on the right side of the bubble this season they’ll need to win by at least 24, if not go for a 30+ pounding.
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