When I showed up to the pcbb1917.com offices this morning with my morning coffee (Iced Vanilla Cold Brew) and a healthy snack (an everything bagel, 6 slices of bacon, and 3 doughnuts), the editor-in-chief told me begin working on the pre-season predictions as soon as I finished clogging my arteries. I smugly replied that I have already put my prediction notes together and the blood flows through my arteries like Thanksgiving gravy. Anyway, I think the difference between first and last place this year is much less than the last few years. I would be very surprised if there is a team as dominant as UConn and expect DePaul and Georgetown to be more competitive. With that said, here we go.
11. Georgetown
As I have mentioned in previous articles, I was very concerned about the coaching of Ed Cooley last season. His team did not play with any of the intensity and defensive effort of his Friar teams. Additionally, the Hoyas have the least experienced team in the conference, a weird thing for a coach who has historically bought into the ‘get old and stay old” mentality.
Their hope is that the young players, especially Julius Halaifonua, are ready for Big East competition, Malik Mack is the player of last November and not the shooter of December-March last year, Drew Fielder takes a big step forward after dealing with nagging injuries during his freshman year, Micah Peavy and Jayden Epps provide leadership as well as skills, and Coach Cooley rediscovers his mojo and gets the Hoyas to play the physical, chip on their shoulders style that he incorporated in Providence. This would put them on the fringe of bubble discussion come February. The worst case scenario is that the Ed Cooley of last year is what he’s become, the freshmen play like freshmen, the Hoyas realize how much they miss the players that left, especially Dontrez Styles, and the three point shooting struggles again after losing three of their four best shooters from deep, and their 328th ranked scoring defense doesn’t markedly improve. This would lead to similar results to last year.
Realistic projection – Ed Cooley does a much better job after last year’s disappointment, Fielder is improved, Mack is somewhere between his early and later shooting levels, and the frosh slowly develop, leading to more competitiveness as the season goes on. I have them last but expect them to be better. The problem is the Big East is stronger at the bottom than the last few years. Record 5-15.
10. DePaul
The Blue Demons did what any team in the portal/NIL era should do after an 0-20 Big East season; they fired the coach and replaced their entire roster. This leads to the reality that it isn’t easy to get players to go to a school that has not made the NCAA tournament since joining the Big East.
If all goes right, Chris Holtmann is reenergized after his time in Columbus, Ohio, DePaul has a bunch of hungry players looking to show they belong at this level, the contingent of local kids coming to play in Chicago provides motivation, the strong shooting percentages of these new players translates to the Big East level, and Isaiah Rivera and David Skogman take the leadership of the team. This would likely result in a post-season bid, either the NIT or the Fox tournament planned for Las Vegas.
The obvious concern is that a new roster leads to similar results. The influx of players demonstrates why they weren’t highly sought after in the portal this year. This would put them in the basement in the conference again.
Realistic projection – More competitive than recent years, with a few upsets sprinkled in. Most importantly, people will respect them. Record 6-14.
9. Seton Hall
This is where it gets harder, but the reason I keep coming back to Hall is banking on Shaheen Holloway’s coaching. The word is that their NIL budget is weak, leading them to recruit a number of players who underperformed their expectations from last year, but could thrive under Sha. Hopefully, Gus Yalden, Scotty Middleton, and former Friar Garwey Dual are able to show why they were all highly rated recruits coming out of high school, and that last year was an aberration. Another key transfer is Chaunce Jenkins, who needs to make a big jump from Old Dominion to compete at this level.
If the newcomers can blend with Dylan Addae-Wusu and Isaiah Coleman, they have a chance to be competitive in most games. Otherwise, they should be fighting to avoid the cellar.
Realistic projection – I expect an up and down season from the Hall with a couple of upset wins and a few head scratching losses. Record 7-13.
8. Villanova
It is never easy to replace the best coach in school history, especially when you have only been a coach for one year, and the result is that Kyle Neptune has been a .500 coach in his first two seasons on the Main Line. Last year, after diving headfirst into the portal, Villanova struggled mightily, with only Eric Dixon meeting expectations. Gone from last year’s team are Mark Armstrong, TJ Bamba, Justin Moore, Tyler Burton, Hakim Hart, Brendan Hausen, and Lance Ware. Newcomers include Wooga Poplar, Jhamir Brickus, and Enoch Boakye, along with a solid group of freshmen. While I think Eric Dixon makes any team he’s on better, I have a hard team seeing this roster compete for an NCAA bid. Unless Neptune changes his style, the personnel do not appear to fit Villanova’s style.
Realistic projection – I think even another 10-10 season is a reach for this team. My guess is a season of mediocrity followed by a coaching search. Record 7-13.
7. Butler
Thad Matta looked reborn last year, and he had the Bulldogs on the fringes of the tournament bubble for most of the season. I did not think they got the respect they deserved for the wins they had. In the off-season, they lost both starting guards, Dre Davis and Posh Alexander. This will give Finley Bizjack and Landon Moore an opportunity to expand their roles, while transfer Kolby King returns to the Big East after a season at Tulane. The most important returnees are leading scorer Pierre Brooks and the most underrated player in the Big East in Jahmyl Telfort. These two, along with Iowa transfer Patrick McCaffrey should keep Butler in most games. The problem for the Bulldogs will likely be at the center position, where they appear to have a solid backup in Andre Screen, but not much else. My guess is that they play small a lot to compensate.
Realistic projection – I expect a very similar season to last year where the are competitive but not deep enough to compete at the top of the conference. Record 8-12.
6. Xavier
I find Xavier to be the most difficult team to project in the conference. If Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter are fully back to the 2022-23 level, and John Hugley is back to his 2021-22 level, Xavier could win the league. They also added highly touted Ryan Conwell, a sharpshooter from Indiana State, and return Dayvion McKnight and Dailyn Swain, among others. The Musketeers received their first bit of bad injury news as transfer big man Lassina Traore will miss the season with a knee injury.
Realistic projection – After racking my brain for nearly ten seconds, I just hedged because of injuries and cannot assume that these players will all come back after missing significant time. I still believe they are an NCAA team and will finish 11-9 in the league.
5. Marquette
This would be the first surprise projection, partly because I believe the top six teams could finish in any order without surprising me. The other reason is that they lost their two best players without bringing in anyone from the portal to replace them. Damarius Owens heads a strong freshman class, and Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell are proven high level players. The key is likely to be Ben Gold, who needs to step up his game to help mitigate the loss of Oso Ighodaro. If he does that and the freshman and sophomores continue to develop, they could return to the top of the conference again this year. That is just a tall ask in a league with as much experience as the Big East.
Realistic projection – I think they will be in the NCAA tournament with a 11-9 conference record.
4. Providence
Like Xavier, I have hesitation trying to decide where to pick the Friars due to the recovery and return of Bryce Hopkins. If he’s 100% by the start of conference play, I truly believe the Friars can compete for first place this year. It is just hard to predict how long it will take Bryce to fully recover. Fortunately, the Friars have depth on the roster, but there is no player in the league quite like a healthy Hopkins.
I have seen stat geeks critical of the Friars portal haul, but I am all in on them. I’m expecting Wesley Cardet to compete for all conference recognition this year and expect him to be better with a strong lineup around him. Christ Essandoko will fit the role Kim English had for Josh Oduro last year, and Jabri Abdur-Rahim will provide a lot of what Ticket Gaines brought, with the expectation of being a better shooter. Finally, Bensley Joseph will give Jayden Pierre a playmaking partner that was missing last season. Add in super-athletic freshman Oswin Erhunmwunse, Corey Floyd, and Justyn Fernandez, along with all-freshman Rich Barron, Ryan Mela, Anton Bonke, and Eli DeLaurier, and it adds up to depth the Friars haven’t had in years.
Realistic projection – I am splitting the difference with Bryce Hopkins. My uninformed guess is that he starts playing in December and works his way back close to 100% by February. I am projecting the Friars to finish 12-8 and comfortably make the NCAA tournament.
3. Connecticut
I know this will rile Huskyville, and they will bombard my boss Mike Hopkins with emails, letters, texts, tweets, and telegrams attacking this. I felt bad then I remembered that he gets paid the big money and has the palatial pcbb1917.com office with a beautiful view of Narragansett Bay while I work out of a converted broom closet next to the men’s room, so I went ahead with it. My true feeling is that UConn will not be as strong at the beginning of the year with the changeover and new freshmen and sophomores replacing 4/5 of their starting lineup to the NBA. By March, they should be a legitimate second or third weekend contender, but I don’t think they will be nearly as dominant as last year. Hassan Diarra will need to take a big step forward again this season, and Alex Karaban will have a lot more responsibility this season after having the most enviable role in college basketball for the past two years. The other concern is not having the security blanket on defense provided by Donovan Clingan. Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed should be fine, but they are not game changers the way Clingan was. On the positive side, I think Liam McNeeley will be a top 5 freshman in the country and arguably the best player on the team by tournament time. The concern I have expressed is whether Aidan Mahaney can come close to filling the shoes of Cam Spencer. He is not as physical as Spencer, and may have a significant adjustment period to the Big East
Realistic projection – I am penciling in the Huskies for 14-6 this year, and at least a Sweet 16 tournament run.
2. St. John’s
To be fair, I am projecting the Red Storm this high because of Rick Pitino as much as any of their additions. The impression I had was that Pitino thought it would be easy to quickly assemble a roster after clearing out every contributor but Joel Soriano from the team he inherited. It appeared to be a wake-up call when Walter Clayton did not follow him from Iona to Queens and forced him to scramble. Jordan Dingle, Chris Ledlum, Naheim Alleyne, Glenn Taylor, along with Soriano appeared to struggle with Pitino’s style. Pitino was able to adapt to his players, winning six of the final seven games in what should have resulted in another NCAA appearance. This year he brings in one of the top-rated portal classes in the country, with players who appear to be better suited to what Pitino wants. Kadary Richmond is a player I wanted out of high school and again when he entered the portal from Syracuse. If he incorporates Pitino’s teachings with his skills and what he learned at Seton Hall, he should be a conference Player of the Year candidate. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by Deivon Smith, a transfer from Utah. Smith had a breakout season last year after three nondescript years at Georgia Tech and Mississippi State. The question is whether last year was a predictor of what to expect or an aberration. Pitino is also high on Aaron Scott, and brought in 7’ Vince Iwuchukwu from USC, a couple of European players, and a solid freshman class with Jaiden Glover and Khaman Maker.
Realistic prediction – I think Pitino works his magic and the Storm finished 14-6 in the conference.
1. Creighton
It would be easy to pick UConn again, or to discredit Creighton after losing two starters to the NBA, but I believe this team will fit Creighton’s system very well, and they still have three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner, along with point guard Steven Ashworth. Kalkbrenner will be another Player of the Year candidate, and I suspect will be more involved in the offense this season. Ashworth struggled early on, but after the New Year’s holiday, he was much more efficient and productive. The Bluejays are also bringing in quality transfers Pop Isaacs and Jamiya Neal, freshman Larry Johnson, and foreign player Fedor Zugic. Isaacs is on the smaller side, similar to Ashworth, so Creighton needs some combination of the other three to be ready to contribute right away. The other concern is at the power forward slot, where neither Mason Miller nor Isaac Traudt were able to take over the spot last year. These two are back, and will be pushed by freshman Jackson McAndrew, who I expect to be in the starting lineup by the time Big East play starts. McAndrew has the size and shooting touch to earn minutes, and was an aggressive rebounder, which should take some pressure off Kalkbrenner. With three options at the four, it is assumed at least one of them will step up. Otherwise, my placement of Creighton will be wrong.
Realistic prediction – I have them at the top of a highly competitive Big East at 15-5, with a solid chance to give Greg McDermott his first Final Four berth.
Next time, I will list my all-conference teams, all-freshman team, all-defensive team, Coach of the Year, and other predictions.
About Author
Leave a Reply