Monday Mindset: Business Completed in the Bahamas

It’s another edition of Monday Mindset…but it’s Wednesday. Some might even say it’s like a Friday with a short week for many due to Thanksgiving in the US this week. It’s all about your…mindset. Anyway. After a 2-0 start to the Kim English Era, the Friars got their first high major tests last week between a home game against Wisconsin in the Gavitt Tip Off Games and matchups against Kansas State and Georgia in the 2023 Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship in Nassau, Bahamas. Providence had their best showing of the season in their convincing win over the Badgers last week and, despite going 1-1 in the Bahamas, showed very well in two games where they were down their starting point guard for 80 of the 85 minutes with Jayden Pierre injuring his hamstring/groin during practice last Thursday. Add a cherry on top of the Friars’ win against Georgia in the consolation game on Sunday with Corey Floyd, Jr. manning the point guard duties after freshman Garwey Dual was serving a mandatory 1-game suspension after an ejection for fighting at the end of the Kansas State game. While it would have been nice to beat Kansas State to get a win, it would have also been a good opportunity from a resume and heat check perspective to see how Providence played against Miami, who ended up hanging 91 on Kansas State to win the championship of the event behind 1.26 points per possession. The Hurricanes led for 39 of the 40 minutes of action. It’s only been 5 games, but the Hurricanes have the 5th best eFG% of 61.5%, which would have been an interesting matchup against Providence’s currently 10th ranked eFG% defense at 39.5%.

As an aside, I hope to have some more analytics stuff on the site this season and have a couple of experts in that area to assist me. You’ve already seen one article from Brendon Desrochers who previewed the 2023 Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship last week and there is another pcbb1917 Slack member that I expect to contribute some statistical analysis throughout the season.

Devin Carter has continued to look very good in a more focal role through 5 games. His defense was always something that was a known commodity and Kim English has talked a lot about Carter’s toughness and being impressed with how he plays, but his shooting has ticked up to 32.4% from beyond the arc. Carter was a career 29.3% shooter from deep after his first two seasons. He’s also on pace to shoot a ton more 3’s than even last season when he took a career-high 117 triples.

Bryce Hopkins has been much discussed among Friar fans. It’s clear he has not yet had a dominant performance, but his overall numbers don’t seem to blend with reality that he is off to a “bad” start. Being a preseason Big East First Teamer does increase the baseline expectations and Hopkins has not yet had a game where he looks like a Big East First Teamer, but he has still been productive. His 3/21 shooting performance from 3-point range is difficult to see, but he shot 36.4% last season on 77 attempts, so he has the ability to knock down 3’s. He has noticeably changed his shooting motion this season and it appears to be more fluid than last season when it seemed like he was more likely taking very set, planted jump shots.

Bryce Hopkins is drawing 6.2 fouls per 40 minutes so far this year. For comparison, he drew 5.0 per 40 last year in conference play which was 1st in the Big East.

He’s scored 10+ points in each game and has 8+ rebounds in 4/5. His usage is up 2% from last year and he’s guarding…

— Danny McNamara (@FriartownMayor) November 21, 2023

Josh Oduro’s transfer from George Mason went way under the radar nationally and even among many Big East watchers. Whether that’s because Oduro followed his coach from Mason to Friartown and he never had a real public portal recruitment with school lists out there or there is some other reason, the fact is Oduro was First Team All-Atlantic 10 his final two seasons under English and he’s shown why he earned those roses. Oduro’s eFG% of 69.4% is currently well above his career-high from last season of 56%. While you might be thinking the level of competiton with Columbia and Milwaukee and the small sample size of 5 games could be skewing those numbers, Oduro has actually had an even better eFG% in the Friars’ two “Tier A” games, per Kenpom, with 70% eFG% against Wisconsin and Kansas State. It’s also been a nice bonus to have your 5-man step out and be 4/5 from beyond the arc through 5 games.

The other Mason transfer I want to discuss this week is Ticket Gaines. Gaines has played for English at three different schools now and you can see why English loves Gaines. Diving on the floor for loose balls, getting his long arms in passing lanes and played lockdown 1-on-1 defense are some of the things that may not actually end up resulting in a direct addition to his box score, but Gaines’ energy, excitement and knowledge of how English wants the game played on both ends of the floor have been very valuable early on for Providence. The bench mob energy has been excellent and you usually see it first after Gaines dives on the floor for a loose ball. Given his history an improvement of his 3-point shooting from 3/17 feels inevitable. Gaines was a 34.6% career 3-point shooter prior to arriving in Friartown with a career-best 39.4% in his first season at George Mason in 2021-22. He made 34.3% from deep last season but also missed time with a broken hand.

Taking a step back from individual players (I was going to discuss Corey Floyd, Jr. but Brian Reddy said it all in his latest “Beyond the Box Score” post), the biggest concern through 5 games is the turnovers. Given English’s more free flowing offensive style than the very controlled set-running offense that fans grew accustomed to under Ed Cooley it’s not unexpected to see more turnovers than prior years, but a 21.5 Turnover % is #bad. That currently ranks 307th nationally. While their turnover numbers have been high they haven’t been as injurious because they have also been forcing teams to turn it over nearly 20% of the time, but eventually if they continue to give the ball away at this high clip that ratio will be too difficult to overcome and it will cost them a game.

As we finish this midweek Monday Mindset I want to say I’m thankful for all of you that have been long time readers and any new folks who didn’t start back in January 2014 with me. This site has gone through several iterations and I’m most thankful for the community that has formed around it, both directly via the Slack channel which has effectively turned into a Friar fan group chat with some of the best fans in all of Friartown, to Twitter/X, my emails and comments on the site. As we head towards Thanksgiving let’s all be grateful for all that we have and recognize that not everyone feels as much love and community as we do in Friartown.

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Mike Hopkins

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