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Game Notes & Preview: Providence (18-12, 9-8) vs St. John’s (15-15, 4-13) 3/3/18

Where: Dunkin’ Donuts Center – Providence, RI

When: 12:00pm EST

How: FSN (Rich Ackerman & Tarik Turner)/Fox Sports GO (Where Available)/WEEI 103.7 FM and Friars.com (John Rooke and Joe Hassett)/FriarTV

Current Odds: pcbb1917 Odds Central

Tickets: SeatGeek

Game Notes

  • Providence and St. John’s will meet for the 112th time ever on Saturday. St. John’s leads the all-time series, 61-50, which includes a loss earlier this season at Carnesecca Arena on December 28th to open the Big East season. The Friars are 25-22 against the Red Storm in Providence.
  • St. John’s is 15-15 this season, including a 4-13 Big East record. The Red Storm’s Big East opener loss at home to the Friars was the genesis of an 0-11 start to league play, but after beating Duke at Madison Square Garden on February 3rd the Red Storm beat Villanova on the road, Marquette at home and then DePaul on the road. St. John’s 4th Big East win came in their most recent game in double overtime at home against Butler on Wednesday. St. John’s is coached by Chris Mullin who is in 3rd season at the helm of the program. The Red Storm are led in scoring by sophomore Shamorie Ponds who is averaging 21.6 points/game. Redshirt sophomore Justin Simon leads the team in rebounding at 7.2 rebounds/game.
  • The Friars dropped a tough road game at Xavier, 84-74, last time out at the Cintas Center on Wednesday.
  • Providence senior forward Rodney Bullock went over 1,000 points in his career against Boston College on November 25th. He became the 48th player in school history to score at least 1,000 points. Bullock is the 17th-fastest Providence player, tied with Eric Murdock, to score his 1,000th point (73 games). Bullock’s current place on the list is 21st with 1,329 points. He is 95 points behind Bob Cooper.
  • Providence senior guard Kyron Cartwright continues his drive up the all-time assist record list at Providence. He began the season tied for 12th with John Linehan (450). Cartwright has 171 assists through 29 games. He has 621 assists in his career, which places him 3rd all-time at Providence. Next on the list in front of Cartwright is Ernie DiGregorio (662). Cartwright recorded his 500th career assist against URI on December 2nd. He is the 7th Providence player to record at least 500 career assists and the 3rd Friar with 600 career assists. Cartwright notched a career-high 15 assists in Providence’s win at St. John’s on December 28th. He recorded his 600th assist in the first half of Providence’s game at Butler on February 17th. Cartwright also surpassed the 1,000 point marker on February 21st against Seton Hall. Cartwright became the 49th player in school history to score at least 1,000 points in a career at Providence and he’s the third player to combine that with at least 600 career assists.
  • Providence officially announced on November 29th that Emmitt Holt would miss the entire 2017-18 season as a redshirt while he continues to recover from abdominal surgery. Holt has been off campus recovering, but is expected to return to school in January. Holt did return to school over the MLK weekend and is back with the team, though he remains out of competition this season.
  • Providence announced on January 11th that former Friar Ernie “Pop” Lewis passed away. Lewis was a key member of Providence’s 1987 Final Four team. You can read the official release and watch a tribute video here.
  • Opening Line: Providence -4 vs St. John’s 3/3/18

Game Preview

Providence and St. John’s will meet for the 112th time ever on Saturday at the Dunk. The game will tip at 12:00pm and be televised on FSN. Click this link for a list of the regional networks that will broadcast this game. Providence is 25-23 all-time against St. John’s at home which includes 1-3 the last 4 seasons.

The Friars are coming off a road loss against Xavier on the Senior Night at the Cintas Center. Providence dealt with early and often foul trouble for key players and only hung around in the game because of the effort of Maliek White who led the Friars with 15 points off the bench. Jalen Lindsey was held scoreless for just the second time all season with only 3 field goal attempts in 21 minutes. Rodney Bullock would ultimately foul out with 6 points and 2 rebounds in 22 minutes and the Friars only got 29 points from their starting 5, led by 13 from Alpha Diallo.

What’s at stake in this game for Providence? The Friars are on the verge of extending their school record streak of made NCAA Tournaments to 5 but they are firmly planted on the bubble. A current look at the bracketology from BracketMatrix.com as of 11:37am on Friday shows Providence in the field in 70 of the 81 brackets that site is citing and their average seed is 10.76. A win on Saturday all but assures that Providence will hear their names called on Selection Sunday on March 11th. Looking more short-term, Providence can assure themselves no worse than the 5th-seed in the Big East Tournament next week with a win and a possibility exists for them to end up with the 3rd-seed. A loss brings scenarios into play that could have the Friars playing in the 7/10 game for the first time in this configuration of the Big East. The biggest danger to playing in that game is a loss is a guaranteed “bad loss” whereas playing in the 4/5 game means Providence will be most likely playing against a team that is going to be in the NCAA Tournament.

The big question for St. John’s in this game is whether or not leading scorer Shamorie Ponds will be healthy and ready to play by the 12pm tip on Saturday. The sophomore southpaw sat out the Red Storm’s double overtime win on Wednesday against Butler due to an abdominal strain. Ponds will likely be a game-time decision for Chris Mullin. Ponds ended up injuring his leg the last time these teams met in late December and the Friars, who were up by 1 at the half in that game, used a huge second half run to crush the Red Storm, 94-72.

The 2018 Providence Senior Day t-shirt design available to the first 2,000 fans inside the Dunk on Saturday.

The probable starters are:

Providence
St. John’s

The keys to victory for Providence are take care of the ball and force St. John’s into tough 2’s. Again, this section seems to be quite repetitive and even a little simplistic. Obviously limiting turnovers and playing good, tough defense are keys to winning a game. But it’s Providence’s recipe for success and I’m not going to omit those factors just because they seem like ABC’s.

St. John’s has the best Turnover % (20.0%) and Steal % (11.5%) in Big East play. A lot of that is because of Shamorie Ponds who has the 32nd best Steal % in the country, but his backcourt-mate Justin Simon is right there with him in 33rd. Providence was hurt mightily in their last game by 17 turnovers that led to 22 Xavier points off their giveaways. Those 17 turnovers accounted for Providence’s 3rd-most in a game this season and the most they’ve had in Big East play. The Friars cannot give St. John’s extra possessions by being sloppy with the ball. The Red Storm make up for their lack of offensive efficiency, 9th in the Big East in that category, by turning teams over and getting easy baskets and extra chances.

On the other side of the ball, St. John’s is at their absolute worst on offense when they are settling for 2-point jumpshots. The description in the “Scouting Details” section of HoopLens.com has the phrase “prone to take inefficient mid-range attempts” for five St. John’s player, including Ponds and Simon. The two biggest correlations for positive offense for St. John’s is when they are making their 3’s and scoring in transition. Forcing the Red Storm to put the ball on the floor and take contested 2-pointers while also controlling the pace of the game to not allow transition baskets will mean the Friars have a very good chance of winning this game and getting a crack at their 20th win on Thursday at MSG for their 5th straight 20-win season.

Prediction: Providence 74 St. John’s 69

Follow me on Twitter @pcbb1917

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Mike Hopkins

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