Game Notes & Preview: Providence (20-9, 8-8) vs Creighton (18-11, 9-7) 3/2/16

Where: Dunkin’ Donuts Center – Providence, RI

When: 9:00pm EST

How: CBS Sports Network (Ben Holden & Jordan Cornette with Jon Rothstein)/WEEI 103.7 FM and Friars.com (John Rooke and Joe Hassett)/FriarTV

Game Notes

• Providence and Creighton will meet for the 17th time on Wednesday with the Friars leading the series, 11-5. The Friars are 6-1 in games played in Providence. The first matchup between these two teams earlier this season was an ugly shooting game for both team that ended with a Providence win at the buzzer, 50-48, courtesy of a Kris Dunn jumpshot.
• Creighton is 18-11 (9-7) on the season. The Bluejays are led by Greg McDermott, who is in his 6th season at the helm of the Creighton program. The Bluejays likely need to run the table between now and March 12th to get an NCAA Tournament bid because of some less than stellar RPI and SOS numbers. The Bluejays are led in scoring by junior Maurice Watson, who averages 15.0 points/game. Senior Geoffrey Groselle is the leading rebounder, averaging 6.1 rebounds/game.
• The Friars dropped out of the the USA Today Coaches’ Poll this week after dropping out of the AP Top 25 a week ago. Providence got no votes in the AP Poll this week, but they got enough votes in the Coaches’ Poll to be 30th.
• Kris Dunn is closing in on some career milestones. He recently became the 6th Friar to amass 200 career steals. Dunn went over the 1,000 point mark on January 30th against Georgetown on a spectacular finish at the rim. His 1,115 career points ranks 35th all-time at Providence and just 1 point behind Billy Fields for 34th. Dunn also has 515 assists (6th all-time), 465 rebounds and 203 steals (6th all-time). He is the only player in school history to have 1,000 points, 500 assists, 400 rebounds and 200 steals.
• Opening Line: Providence -2.5 vs Creighton 3/2/16

Game Preview

The shooting in this game can’t be worse than it was the first time these teams met back on January 12th. The two combined to shoot 33/120, or 27.5%, from the field that night with Providence being the “hotter” team at 30%. In conference games, Creighton is dead last in 3-point shooting percentage and Providence is right there with them in 9th. The Bluejays have only shot higher than the national average of 34.9% five times in their sixteen Big East games. Having said all of that, I’m expecting both teams to shoot better in this game with Creighton coming off scoring 100 on St. John’s over the weekend and Providence shooting 60% in the second half in their win over DePaul on Saturday.

The probable starters according to the game notes and prior box scores are:

Providence

• Kyron Cartwright – #24 – Sophomore
• Kris Dunn – #3 – Junior
• Junior Lomomba – #32 – Junior
• Rodney Bullock – #5 – Sophomore
• Ben Bentil – #0 – Sophomore

Creighton

• Maurice Watson  – #10 – Junior
• Isaiah Zierden – #21 – Junior
• James Milliken – #23 – Senior
• Toby Hegner – #32 – Sophomore
• Geoffrey Groselle – #41 – Senior

The keys to a Providence victory are:

1. Get the ball inside
2. Get to the foul line
3. Clean the glass

Providence is just not a good shooting team. Fans kept waiting for this team to wake up and have one of those shooting nights where everyone is clicking. Well, it hasn’t happened and it’s March 1st. Ed Cooley seems resigned to the fact that a team he and his staff felt could be one of the best shooting teams they’ve had is actually pretty bad at shooting. To that end, the Friars should be focusing on getting the ball to the basket. Creighton is dead last in the Big East in block % at just 7.1%, per Kenpom.com. The Bluejays don’t have terrific size inside. Rodney Bullock should look to be aggressive early. Ideally, he should catch the ball at elbow and barrage his way to the rim off the dribble. If Providence is aggressive getting the ball inside early, there will be better shooting opportunities for guys like Jalen Lindsey and Ryan Fazekas to take some open looks from the outside.

The second key basically goes hand-in-hand with the first one. If Providence is aggressive taking the ball to the rack, they are likely to draw fouls and get to the free throw line. In their win over DePaul on Saturday, the Friars shot an impressive 30 free throws, making 27 of them. For a team that isn’t likely to hit outside shots, getting some free chances from the line will help stack up some points. Providence leads the Big East in free throw rate, but Creighton’s defense is second best at preventing trips to the line. If Providence gets an advantage here, it’s an easy way to lead to a plus in points.

Providence’s defense is dead last in the Big East Offensive Rebound percentage at 32.2%. Creighton’s offense happens to be second-worst in the league in that same category at 25.4%, but Providence can ill afford giving Creighton second chances.

Kris Dunn practiced on Monday and Cooley indicated that all players that were under the weather are coming around. Dunn did a fantastic job hounding Maurice Watson in Omaha and if he is healthy enough to guard Watson for much of the game, a similar defensive performance would be very disruptive to the Bluejays’ offense.

Prediction: Providence 75 Creighton 69

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Mike Hopkins

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