Providence is now two-thirds of the way through their 18 game Big East schedule and they are sitting at 6-6 and are in a tie for 6th with Butler. The Friars have certainly been up and down in league play. They started 4-2 in the first third of the schedule and followed that up with a 2-4 record in the second third — though 1 of their 2 wins in the second third came on the road at Villanova.

The Providence Friars on February 12th are not the same unit that burst onto the national scene during non-conference play with an impressive showing in Anaheim at the Wooden Legacy Tournament over the Thanksgiving weekend. In fact, their only other loss outside of conference play this season came in the championship game of that even to then 3rd-ranked Michigan State. After that 11-1 non-conference performance, fans were thinking more about seeding and what regional site the Friars might get. Their .500 record over their last 12 games, including losing 4 of their last 5 games, has changed that tune dramatically. Now, fans are examining the remaining six Big East games to determine what Providence’s RPI will be and if that will be good enough to even get an invitation to a third straight NCAA Tournament. Let’s do some examining of our own, shall we?

RPI, Expected RPI, RPI Impact and Most Probable Record are courtesy of RPIForecast.com. Kenpom rating is courtesy of Kenpom.com. All numbers are through games of 2/11/16.

Georgetown at Home 2/13/16

The Hoyas have been a disappointment this season after being picked 2nd in the preseason league poll by the coaches. Providence went into DC two weekends ago and handled Georgetown fairly easily, despite letting the Hoyas back into the game a bit in the second half. There never seemed to be any level of panic, however, that Providence was ultimately going to pull that game out. The Friars could use another effort like that where they got 26 points and 9 rebounds from Ben Bentil, 26 points and 4 steals from Kris Dunn and 10 points and 14 rebounds from Rodney Bullock.

• RPI: 76
• Kenpom: 59
• Record: 14-11 (7-5)
• Most Probable Final Record: 16-15 (9-9)
• Expected RPI: 70
• Expected RPI Impact on Providence: 0.43

Xavier on the Road 2/17/16

Providence wasted a raucous crowd at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center in late January against this Xavier team that is one of the deepest in the nation. You can pretty much count on Xavier’s crowd being raucous at the Cintas Center, a place Xavier rarely loses. Since the Musketeers joined the Big East, they have a record of 40-6 at their on-campus arena that holds just over 10,000 fans. The Friars are 0-2 in their trips to the Cintas Center the last two seasons and the Musketeers depth and versatility really hurt Providence in their game a few weeks ago. With a 2.55 Expected RPI Impact, a win at Xavier would be a huge boost to Providence’s RPI and their resume.

• RPI: 8
• Kenpom: 21
• Record: 21-3 (9-3)
• Most Probable Final Record: 25-5 (13-5)
• Expected RPI: 10
• Expected RPI Impact on Providence: 2.55

Seton Hall on the Road 2/25/16

Seton Hall took it to Providence in their game at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center on January 16th. Derrick Gordon started for Kevin Willard and did a masterful job of slowing down and disrupting Kris Dunn. Dunn scored 16 points, but only got off 8 shots and had 4 turnovers against 2 assists. He also fouled out of that game. The Friars had trouble stopping dribble penetration by Isaiah Whitehead and Khadeen Carrington scored a career-high 22 points on that afternoon. Providence has struggled against team’s that play above-average defense and the Pirates certainly do that. They are top 30 in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom.com. This would be a nice road game to get for the Friars and they played well at the Prudential Center last season, but they will have to try to score in transition and hit some shots against a tough, hard-nosed Seton Hall defensive unit.

• RPI: 51
• Kenpom: 36
• Record: 17-7 (7-5)
• Most Probable Final Record: 20-10 (10-8)
• Expected RPI: 55
• Expected RPI Impact on Providence: 1.38

DePaul at Home 2/27/16

Providence losing to DePaul — even on the road — was a low-point of the season. The Blue Demons entered that game with a 1-8 league record and Providence should have still been able to handle the regular basement dweller even with Ben Bentil injuring his right ankle early in the game. DePaul has some nice players, but the Friars made Myke Henry look like an All-League player in giving him a career night. The Friars will certainly key on Henry when the Blue Demons come to the Dunkin’ Donuts Center. With DePaul’s RPI numbers being in the 150-170 range and their Expected RPI Impact being a negative for Providence, the Friars can ill afford a home loss to the Blue Demons on their NCAA Tournament resume.

• RPI: 151
• Record: 8-16 (2-10)
• Most Probable Final Record: 10-20 (4-14)
• Expected RPI: 168
• Expected RPI Impact on Providence: -1.43

Creighton at Home 3/2/16

Creighton has been making a push of late towards the NCAA Tournament. They recently beat Xavier at home and that win has faulted them back on the bubble, albeit the deep bubble. The Bluejays still have to play Marquette twice, Providence, Butler and Xavier once, with their only real “easy” game at home against St. John’s on February 28th. By the time the Friars square off with Creighton at the Dunk on March 2nd, the pictures will be clearer if Creighton has a shot at the NCAA Tournament. Maurice Watson was largely held in check by Kris Dunn in the meeting in Omaha. Hopefully the teams don’t shoot as poorly as they did at CenturyLink, but the Friars need another good defensive effort to slow down Greg McDermott’s dynamic offensive attack.

• RPI: 86
• Kenpom: 42
• Record: 16-9 (7-5)
• Most Probable Final Record: 19-12 (10-8)
• Expected RPI: 78
• Expected RPI Impact on Providence: 1.22

St. John’s on the Road 3/5/16

St. John’s has been absolutely brutal all season. They sit at 0 and everything in Big East play and the Friars handed the Red Storm in early January when the team’s first met. Chris Mullin has a very young roster and it has shown throughout the season. Having said all of that, playing at Madison Square Garden always jumps up the energy level and with this being the last regular season game, the pressure will be all on Providence not to drop a critical road game. I say it’s critical because a loss would very painful with the Red Storm having a -2.09 Expected RPI Impact on Providence. Even just playing the Red Storm — a team expected to have an RPI of 233 by season’s end — won’t be helpful. Losing will be disastrous.

• RPI: 206
• Kenpom: 254
• Record: 6-18 (0-12)
• Most Probable Final Record: 7-23 (1-15)
• Expected RPI: 233
• Expected RPI Impact on Providence: -2.09

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Mike Hopkins

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