Game Notes & Preview: Providence (6-3) vs. Rhode Island (5-2) 12/10/14

Where: Dunkin’ Donuts Center – Providence, RI

When: 7:00PM

How: Fox Sports Network (Justin Kutcher & Vin Parise)/WEEI 103.7 FM and Friars.com (John Rooke and Joe Hassett)/FriarTV

Game Notes

• Providence and Rhode Island have met 124 times all time making this rivalry the most played game in Providence history. The Friars hold a 70-54 edge in the series including a 36-23 record in Providence. The Friars have won the last 4 times these two have squared off and 7 of the last 11. The Friars won last season’s matchup at the Ryan Center, 50-49. The last time the team’s played at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center Providence won, 72-57, on December 6, 2012. The last Ram win came in Kingston on December 5, 2009. The series has been continuously played since 1935 except for 1943-44 when Providence didn’t field a team due to World War II. Rhode Island is one of 3 schools that Providence has played at least 100 times with the other two being their last two opponents in Brown (121 games) and Boston College (109 games).
• Rhode Island enters Wednesday’s tilt with a 5-2 record on the season. Their last game was on December 6th at Southern Miss where the Rams came out victorious, 75-43. The Rams are led in scoring by sophomore guard E.C. Matthews averaging 16.1 points/game. Sophomore forward Hassan Martin leads the Rams on the glass averaging 6.4 rebounds/game.
• Providence is 142-105 against the Atlantic 10 all time including a 2-1 record last season. That loss came in the most recent game against another Atlantic 10 team when Providence fell at UMass, 69-67, in overtime on December 28, 2013.
• Providence’s loss to Brown on December 8th snapped a 39 game non-conference home winning streak. The 2014-15 season marks the first one since the 2009-10 season that the Friars have lost a non-conference home game. That loss was to Iona on December 12, 2009.
• The line opened with Providence as a 5 point favorite. 

Kenpom InstaGamePrep™

Note: Stats include games through December 8th vs D-1 teams only

Game Preview

Providence appears to be reeling right now coming off three straight losses. The Friars dropped a tough road game to Kentucky then followed that up by coming out flat at Boston College 5 days later and putting the cherry on the loser sundae by dropping a decision by 10 points at home to Brown in a game Vegas favored the Friars by 15 points.

With only one day to shake off the loss and prepare for Rhode Island, Ed Cooley’s Friars would appear to be at a disadvantage as the Rams last played on December 6th and earned a big road win at Southern Miss by blowing the doors off the Golden Eagles, 75-43. The Rams come in with their two losses against #11 ranked Kansas and in the 5th place game of the Orlando Classic against Georgia Tech. Their 5 wins are against Pace (Division II), UMass-Lowell, #21 Nebraska, Santa Clara and the aforementioned Southern Miss Golden Eagles. The Rams have two freshmen contributors in Jared Terrell and Jarvis Garrett that chose the Rams over offers from the Friars this past recruiting cycle. None of that stuff really matters though. This is a rivalry game and if the intensity is anything like last year when Cooley and Hurley were screaming at each other during a timeout this could be a very fun game at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center Wednesday night.

Doing a quick comparison of the shooting statistics from the 2013-14 season and the shooting statistics through Providence’s first 9 games of the 2014-15 season offers a look at the differences in scoring output between the two seasons:

The Friars are only scoring 21.0% of their points at the free throw line compared to 25.3%. This season’s rank is 168th nationally as compared to 35th a season ago. Picking up both their free throw attempts and makes will go a long way to helping this year’s Friars win close games.

Another key stat to keep an eye on in this game is turnovers. Providence’s defense is forcing turnovers on 21.5% of their opponent’s possessions while Rhode Island’s offense is turning the ball over on 22.4% of its possessions. The Providence mark is good for 98th in the country while Rhode Island’s is 281st. With Kenpom predicting 63 possessions in this game it’s likely Rhode Island will turn the ball over somewhere around 14 times. Rhode Island has been even stronger on the defensive side in terms of forcing turnovers than the Friars as the Rams defense is forcing turnovers on 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions which is ranked 28th nationally.

Providence’s offense has been ok at turning the ball over only doing so on 19.4% of its possessions which ranks 133rd. Kris Dunn will have to be careful and keep his handle tight because the Rams thrive off of points off turnovers. If we use Kenpom’s predicted 63 possessions again it’s likely Providence will also have 14 turnovers. The team that can force more turnovers and turn more of those turnovers into points will likely win this game.

Now that I’ve bored you with a bunch of statistics let me get down to how I think this game plays out. I think Providence will finally wake up from their daze of the last two games and compete from the start. Kris Dunn will be a key for a number of reasons. First he will have to take care of the ball as 6 turnovers like he had against Brown will be disastrous against Rhode Island. Second and equally as important he will have to stay out of foul trouble. Stopping E.C. Matthews will also be a key as he is the Rams leading scorer.

I’m a little concerned about Hassan Martin on the offensive glass as I’m not sure Providence has an answer for him down low if LaDontae Henton doesn’t come to play. Providence and Rhode Island will have another intense matchup on Wednesday night that will be a nailbiter throughout. I think Providence finally gets their act together and pulls this one out at home though I think it may come down to who has the ball last.

Prediction: Providence 56 Rhode Island 55

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Mike Hopkins

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